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Summer 2022 is on the horizon, and Mother Nature doesn’t plan to offer much help to the West while a few spots potentially receive a surplus of moisture to help curb above-average temperatures.

The annual summer outlook released by Earth Networks’ meteorologists on May 19 detailed that the upcoming summer doesn’t look much different than last year. One of the biggest changes with this year’s outlook is that it included forecasts for the populated southern Canadian Provinces. All signs are pointing to above- average temperatures across the U.S. and Canada this summer, with below- average rainfall expected for much of the central and northwestern U.S., and in Canada, from Ontario to British Columbia.

Although temperatures are expected to be above- average for almost everyone this summer, there is hope for heat-busting rain from the summer Southwest Monsoon. This will be a big help for drought sufferers across the Desert Southwest as moisture being driven from Mexico and the Gulf of California is funneled north this summer, leading to above- average rainfall. Meanwhile, the East Coast can look forward to a soggy summer thanks to repeated thunderstorms and especially later in the summer, enhanced rainfall from tropical systems.

“The monsoon will be helpful in replenishing rainfall deficits in the Southwest. Most of the showers and storms will occur during the height of the monsoon season from mid-July to early September. Meanwhile, residents along the East Coast, particularly along and east of Interstate 95, may see an increased risk of flash flooding thanks to an overload of rain,” said Senior Meteorologist, Chad Merrill. “The East Coast rainfall will keep temperatures on a few occasions from soaring in the afternoon and will be a big contributor to muggy nights that will ultimately lead to a warmer than average summer for this part of the country,” said Merrill.

Sadly, the expansive drought across much of the West won’t see its grip loosening anytime soon. In fact, drought is expected to intensify for the Great Plains to the West Coast. Even parts of Ontario, Manitoba, Saskatchewan, Alberta and British Columbia will see drought expand due to poor soil moisture and lack of rain.

On top of the increasing drought, wildfire intensity and frequency are set to increase across the western U.S. and southern Canada. Firefighters will have their work cut out for them as they battle an active fire season across the western Plains, Mountain West and California. On the other hand, the Pacific Northwest and Desert Southwest will likely see below- average activity thanks to added moisture.

“Despite the prospect for near average rainfall in California and the Great Basin, we are coming up on their dry season, so an inch or less of rain that typically falls from June through September will do nothing for the drought. We expect a dry summer for the Rockies, which will only exacerbate existing conditions. The unfortunate part about the rainfall in the Mountain West is that it typically comes in the form of thunderstorms, which are notorious for sparking wildfires,” said Merrill.

The current ENSO (El Nino Southern Oscillation) pattern favors continuation of La Nina through summer. This means that cooler than normal ocean temperatures along the equator in the Pacific Ocean will likely play a part in the increased dryness in the central and western U.S., while the East Coast remains soggy. “One of the stronger signals from La Nina is for below-normal rainfall from Texas up through the Central Plains,” said Senior Meteorologist, James Aman.

Here’s a list of key highlights from this year’s summer outlook:

Mother Nature Cranks Up The Heat: Above average temperatures will make for a hot summer across much of the U.S. and southern Canada.
West Remains Dry, East Remains Soggy: Almost all of the West is likely to remain locked in deep drought, with just Arizona and New Mexico seeing some improvement. In contrast, above-normal rainfall is seen for the East Coast.
Active Wildfire Season Ahead: Dry vegetation and increased temperatures will lead to more wildfires that will burn more acres than average for much of the western U.S. and southwestern Canada.

The U.S. government’s summer outlook released from NOAA showed similar results to the outlook released by Earth Networks’ meteorologists. The agency is forecasting above average temperatures for much of the U.S., though equal chances exist for the Upper Midwest and West Coast. They also predict an active Southwest Monsoon season is on tap and above average rainfall is likely for the Ohio Valley, Mid-Atlantic and Florida. The central and Northwest U.S. are also forecast to see below normal rainfall this summer

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2022 Summer Outlook: Hot With Escalating Drought