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Hurricane Zeta is approaching the Yucatan Peninsula, bringing hurricane conditions tonight and Tuesday. The U.S. Gulf Coast is the storm’s ultimate destination later Wednesday or early Thursday.
As of 4 p.m. CDT, Hurricane Zeta was located near 19.5 N and 86.0 W, or about 90 miles southeast of Cozumel, Mexico. This would put it about 780 miles south-southeast of New Orleans. Zeta has maximum sustained winds of 80 mph, making it a category 1 hurricane. The minimum central pressure was 981 mb, or 28.97 inches of mercury. The storm is moving northwest at 10 mph as it churns over the western Caribbean.
A Hurricane Warning has been issued for the tip of the Yucatan Peninsula from Tulum to Rio Lagartos, including Cozumel and Cancun. There are Tropical Storm Warnings posted for south of Tulum to Punta Allen, west of Dzilam to Progreso, Mexico, and Pinar del Rio on the western tip of Cuba,
After moving across the Yucatan’s eastern tip, Zeta will emerge into the Gulf of Mexico early Tuesday and start to churn northward toward the Louisiana coast. While it is likely to remain a hurricane for much of the journey across the Gulf, sea-surface temperatures are a bit on the cool side close to the Gulf Coast. This will impede the storm, meaning it will likely be weakening before landfall late Wednesday or early Thursday.
That said, numerous risks remain with Zeta as it approaches Louisiana Wednesday. Storm surges of 1 to 3 feet are anticipated, with the highest surges on the eastern side of the storm. Gusty winds of 60 to 80 mph are likely across eastern Louisiana, southern Mississippi and southern Alabama, along with 2 to 5 inches of rain.
The storm will rapidly move inland and merge with a strong upper-level low pressure system churning into the southern Plains this week. This will allow the moisture to scoot eastward across the Ohio and Tennessee valleys and into the Mid-Atlantic. This may mean 2 to 4 inches of rain for cities such as Nashville, Cincinnati and even Washington, D.C., and Baltimore later Thursday and Friday.
Among the achievements for this hurricane season, Zeta is now the 27th named storm of the year, which ties the all-time record set in 2005. Additionally, numerous storms have rapidly intensified into behemoth hurricanes, and seemingly nothing has gone “according to plan” this season. Therefore, it’s best to keep a close eye on the storm throughout the week.
While the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season is in the rearview mirror and the tropics had been quiet for about a week, there is usually a secondary spike in tropical storms and hurricanes in mid-October. Storms most commonly originate in the western Caribbean and central Atlantic this time of year.