When you think about winter weather, tornadoes probably aren't the first thing that comes to mind.

Snowstorms? Sure. Freezing temperatures? Absolutely.

But here's something that might surprise you: El Niño can actually increase the risk of tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in parts of the South during the  winter.

And with a strong El Niño developing ahead of the 2026–2027 winter, it's a possibility worth paying attention to.

So, Why Does El Niño Increase Severe Weather?

It all comes down to the jet stream.

El Niño happens when ocean temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean become warmer than average. That warming changes how heat and moisture move through the atmosphere, which can influence weather patterns thousands of miles away.

During El Niño winters the southern jet stream, that normally sits across or just south of the Plains, becomes stronger and shifts the main storm track farther south into areas like Texas, Alabama, Mississippi, Georgia and Florida. 

That means more frequent storm systems, and potentially more severe storms.

El Niño doesn't create tornadoes directly. But it can help set the stage for the weather patterns that produce them.

Where Is Winter Severe Weather More Likely During El Niño?

We see this most often across parts of the Southeast, particularly Florida.

During El Niño winters, the southern storm track can bring more active weather into the Gulf Coast states and Florida Peninsula.

Research from the National Weather Service has found that Florida tends to experience more tornadoes during El Niño years than during La Niña or even neutral conditions.

In fact, historical data from the NWS Tallahassee office found that Florida averaged roughly 15 tornadoes per year during El Niño conditions, compared with about half that number during neutral and La Niña years.

While El Niño can increase the potential for severe weather across parts of the southern United States, La Niña patterns can favor more tornado activity farther north and west during portions of the cool season.

What Does This Mean for Winter 2026–2027?

This year's El Niño is already getting plenty of attention for its potential impacts on winter temperatures, rain and snowfall.

But severe weather is another piece of the puzzle.

According to NOAA's September outlook, El Niño is strengthening, with a greater than 90% chance of becoming very strong during the fall and winter of 2026–2027.

A stronger El Niño can make some of its typical winter weather patterns more impactful, including an that active southern storm track we were talking about.

Why Winter Tornadoes Can Be Especially Dangerous

Tornadoes aren't just a springtime problem.

Severe thunderstorms can develop during any month of the year when the right ingredients come together.

And winter tornadoes bring some additional challenges.

Days are shorter, meaning storms have a greater chance of arriving after dark. People may also be less prepared for tornado warnings during a season more commonly associated with snow and cold.

That's why it's important to have more than one way to receive weather alerts, even during the winter months.

The Bottom Line

El Niño doesn't guarantee a stormier or more dangerous winter everywhere.

But by changing the jet stream and shifting storm tracks, it can increase the potential for severe thunderstorms and tornadoes in parts of the South.

So while much of the country is focused on what El Niño could mean for snow and cold, there's another side of the winter forecast worth watching.

For a broader look at how El Niño could influence temperatures, precipitation and snowfall across the country, read our latest El Niño Winter Outlook.