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The U.S. weather government recently updated the Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS), so what does that mean?

A significant update five years in the making was finally released for the U.S. NOAA-sponsored ensemble weather model. The model helps predict weather forecasts for many days to weeks in advance.

The new GEFS will now have 31 members instead of 21. “Members” are individual forecasts, each with slightly different initial conditions that lead to different forecasts down the road. These different forecasts can help meteorologists determine a possible range of weather types and choose what is most likely to occur.

In addition to the increase in members, the upgraded forecast model has an updated set of equations to help determine the weather. Not to be outdone, the resolution for GEFS was also improved from 20.5 miles to 15.5 miles. This means the model can now see and predict weather at a smaller scale with more detail than before.

Perhaps the largest update to GEFS is the increase in forecast lead time. GEFS used to only be able to forecast 16 days in advance, but now it can forecast more than one month in advance, with 35 days of data for meteorologists to sift through. Increasing the forecast lead time helps determine weather patterns and uncertainty farther out.

During the testing stage of the GEFS development, GEFS showed improvement in forecasting severe weather including hurricane tracks and intensity as well precipitation and temperature forecasts from 2-4 weeks out.

This large-scale update to one of the main weather models U.S. meteorologists use is expected to be a huge step in increasing confidence for forecasts farther in the future. This upgrade to GEFS will not only help meteorologists but will also protect everyone as extreme weather may be able to be predicted sooner than ever before.

Sources: noaa.gov
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Story Image: A global system (Image courtesy of pixabay.com)

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Government Upgrades Weather Forecast Models