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A heavy rainfall event will take shape over parts of the southern Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley today through the middle of next week. Flash flooding will be possible despite the persistent drought conditions present.
A disturbance responsible for heavy rain and flash flooding in the Southwest this week will push east into the central U.S. today, bringing monsoonal moisture to the Plains. The addition of moisture provided by former Potential Tropical Cyclone Four will surge northward from the Gulf of Mexico and interact with a front across the Southern Plains. This combination will boost the heavy rainfall threat over southern Oklahoma and northern Texas to the Lower Mississippi Valley through the middle of next week.
Periods of rain showers and thunderstorms will bring moderate to heavy rainfall. Between 2 to 6 inches of rain with isolated spots seeing 8 or more inches will accumulate by the end of Tuesday from southern Oklahoma and central Texas to eastern Louisiana. While this rainfall will be beneficial due to the ongoing drought, there is still the potential for flash flooding throughout the southern Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley.
Flood Watches and Flash Flood Warnings extend from southern Oklahoma to northern Texas and into northwest Louisiana and southwestern Arkansas. Cities include Altus, Okla., Wichita Falls, Dallas and Tyler, Texas, El Dorado, Ark., and Shreveport and Monroe, La.
Moist tropical air will persist across southern Arizona and southern New Mexico today, but will gradually diminish. The result will be the rounds of scattered showers and thunderstorms in parts of the Southwest, with locally heavy rainfall and flooding possible.
Additional Flood Watches and Flash Flood Warnings are spread throughout western Colorado and New Mexico.
If you will be out and about, be sure to keep an eye to the sky and look out for rapidly changing cloud coverage. If you encounter flooded roadways, remember to “Turn Around, Don’t Drown!” In some cases, the thunderstorm that leads to flooding at your location could be many miles away.