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Summer Outlook: El Nino Likely To Continue

May 23, 2019
By WeatherBug Meteorologist
As summer quickly approaches and severe weather expands across the Plains and summer heat builds in parts of the South, many are wondering if Mother Nature has any more tricks up her sleeves in the next three months. The answer is yes, there are signs of an active weather pattern in parts of the U.S.
 
Earth Networks meteorologists released its summer outlook on May 23 and is calling for a potentially stormy summer in parts of the U.S. while other areas could head for possible drought conditions. 
 
The summer pattern will be driven by a blend of El Nino, warming of the equatorial Pacific Ocean and recent climate trends. El Nino developed earlier this year and will likely continue through the summer. Unlike the previous strong El Nino in 2015, this summer’s El Nino will likely be much weaker. Sea surface temperature anomalies in the equatorial Pacific are showing signs of remaining only slightly above average through August.
 
A typical weak El Nino summer pattern features above average temperatures in parts of the southern Plains and a risk of cooler than average temperatures across the West, far northern tier and interior New England. Precipitation tends to be below average in the southern Plains and interior New England and above average across parts of the northern tier and Florida.
 
Meanwhile, Earth Networks also considered the most recent summer trends over the last 10 years. A distinct warming trend has been noted from the West Coast to the southern Plains with a weak signal for warmer than average temperatures along the East Coast. Rainfall has been trending above average from the Midwest to Northeast in the last 10 summers. The southern Plains and parts of the Southwest have seen a tendency for below average rain and the West Coast near average rainfall.
 
The Earth Networks summer outlook follows a blend of a weak El Nino and recent summer trends. Here are a few key takeaways from the summer outlook:
 
  •  Warm Southern Plains and Southwest: There is a moderate signal for above average temperatures from eastern New Mexico and Colorado into Texas, much of Oklahoma and southern Kansas.
  • Warm Southeast to Mid-Atlantic Coast: There is a weak signal for warmer than average temperatures in the Southeast and along and east of Interstate 95 in the Mid-Atlantic.
  • Cool and wet Northern Rockies to Great Lakes: There is a weak signal for weather systems to bring enhanced rainfall from northern Montana to the Great Lakes. This would also drive potential cooler than average temperatures through this region.
  • Soggy Summer in Florida: There is a moderate signal for above average rain in Florida with a weaker signal for above average rain in adjacent parts of the eastern Gulf Coast and southern Southeast Atlantic Coast.
“We are confident El Nino will remain weak this summer,” said Chad Merrill, Senior Meteorologist at Earth Networks. “The pattern looks to allow for drier and warmer weather to develop in the southern Plains and Southwest as the summer wears on. Meanwhile, a potentially cool and wet start to the summer across the northern tier and far northern Mid-Atlantic will likely fade in the Mid-Atlantic, Northeast and Great Lakes by July, leaving a sliver of the northern Rockies to Upper Mississippi Valley at stake for a potentially cool July. There are mixed temperature signals for August across much of the U.S., but we favor a warm pattern in the southern Plains,” said Merrill.

NOAA’s summer outlook calls for below average temperatures in much of the Plains and above-average temperatures for the West and Mid-Atlantic and New England coast. NOAA favors above average precipitation across the central and northern Rockies this summer. NOAA also shows a slivers of the Southwest seeing below average precipitation this summer.