Tropical Storm Cristobal Eyes Southeastern Louisiana Landfall Today | WeatherBug
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Tropical Storm Cristobal Eyes Southeastern Louisiana Landfall Today

June 7, 2020
UPDATED By WeatherBug Meteorologists
Tropical Storm Cristobal will make landfall along the southeastern Louisiana Gulf Coast by late afternoon today. It will deliver the full kitchen sink of tropical hazards, including squally rain bands, storm surge and even a few brief tornado spin ups north and east of its path onshore.

As of 10 a.m. CDT, Tropical Storm Cristobal was located near 28.7N and 90.0W, or about 90 miles south of New Orleans. Cristobal's maximum sustained winds were 50 mph while moving north at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure is at 994 mb, or 29.36 inches of mercury.

Tropical Storm Warnings remain in place from Intracoastal City, La., to the Eglin AFB in Florida. This includes Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas and metro New Orleans, Mobile, Ala., and Pensacola, Fla.

A disorganized Cristobal is moving north through the northern Gulf of Mexico, and is highly likely to make landfall by late afternoon along Louisiana’s southeastern Gulf Coast. Repeated rain bands circulating well ahead of Cristobal’s center will continue to batter the western Florida Panhandle to Louisiana coasts with tropical storm force winds, or sustained wind exceeding 39 mph with higher gusts.

Despite Cristobal’s disorganized appearance, it will generate a dangerous storm surge, especially along and east of the storm’s path inland today. A Storm Surge Warning is in effect from the mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs, Miss. This includes the portion of New Orleans not protected by the Hurricane and Storm Damage Risk Reduction System, and Lake Borgne, La. A Storm Surge Watch is in effect east of Morgan City, La., to the mouth of the Mississippi River.
 
This means a storm surge of 3 to 5 feet is expected between far eastern Louisiana and Ocean Springs, Miss., including Lake Borgne. A storm surge of 2 to 4 feet is likely from near Morgan City, La., to the Mississippi River, while east of Ocean Springs, Miss., to Pensacola Bay and Tampa Bay, Fla., including Mobile Bay, could experience a storm surge of 1 to 3 feet.

Beyond tropical storm force and storm surge hazards associated with Cristobal, locally heavy rainfall and even the potential for a few tornadoes will accompany the tropical storm, even as it moves further inland this evening through overnight. Rainfall accumulation of 4 to 8 inches is expected across the central Gulf Coast and Lower Mississippi Valley, including New Orleans. A few spots here could receive up to a foot of rainfall.

Flood Watches are in place from New Orleans to the Florida Peninsula and extend as far north as Arkansas and south-central Missouri, this coming after a very soggy spring. The heavy rain will force streams and rivers to exceed their banks, leading to flooding. Not to be outdone, a Tornado Watch continues for coastal Alabama and Mississippi. Cities like Mobile, Ala., and Biloxi, Miss., are included in the watch.

After landfall, Cristobal will sweep north through the Mississippi Valley and combine with a cold front pushing east of the northern Plains Wednesday. All told, 4 to 6 inches of rain will produce flooding from the Lower Mississippi Valley into the Mid-South. Two to four inches will trigger flash flooding across the Midwest into the Great Lakes Tuesday and Wednesday. 

This storm has quite a history. It formed originally as Tropical Storm Amanda off the west coast of Central America in late May, then dissipated as the storm drifted inland. A new disturbance organized in the Bay of Campeche on the Atlantic side of Mexico, which became Cristobal. However, the storm’s hallmark drift remained, and it moved back toward the Mexican mainland, where it had ambled about for much of last week as it weakened to a tropical depression. It produced heavy rainfall on the order of 1 to 2 feet in parts of Mexico.

Be sure to check often with WeatherBug for the latest on Cristobal.