Tropical Depression #13 Forms In Southern Caribbean | WeatherBug
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Tropical Depression #13 Forms In Southern Caribbean

October 7, 2022
UPDATED by WeatherBug Meteorologists
After one week free of tropical activity, the tropics are starting to come alive again. Tropical Depression Thirteen formed Thursday evening.

As of 5 a.m. AST/EDT, Tropical Depression Thirteen was located near 12.1 N and 71.1 W, or 35 miles east-southeast of the northern tip of the Guajira Peninsula, Colombia. It was producing top sustained winds of 35 mph and is moving west at 15 mph. Thirteen had a minimum central pressure of 1004 mb, or 29.65 inches of mercury.

A Hurricane Watch has been issued for San Andres, Providencia and Santa Catalina Islands in Colombia. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible, generally within 48 hours. 

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for coast of Colombia from the its border with Venezuela to Riohacha. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected with the next within the next 24 to 36 hours.

Tropical Depression Thirteen will continue to move in a westerly direction through the end of the weekend. It will likely strengthen a tropical storm this morning. It will be given the name “Julia.” Thirteen is expected to move over a small portion over northern Venezuela and northern Colombia overnight and this morning. From there, it will move across the open waters of the southwestern Caribbean Sea for the rest of today and Saturday and will likely strengthen even more as it interacts with warm waters and low wind shear. This could make it a hurricane right before it makes landfall again on Sunday in Nicaragua.

Tropical storm-force winds are possible across the ABC Islands of Aruba, Bonaire and Curacao as well as the northwestern coast of Venezuela tonight and westward along the coast of Colombia.

Heavy rainfall could cause life-threatening flash flooding in portions of the Guajira Peninsula of Colombia, northern Venezuela and the ABC Islands over the next few days. Heavy rain and the potential for flash flooding and mudslides are expected to spread to portions of Central America this weekend. Rainfall amounts of 6 to 12 inches are likely for San Andres and Providencia, with 6 to 10 inches and isolated amounts up to 16 inches for eastern Nicaragua.  Rain amounts of 3 to 6 inches and isolated amounts up to 10 inches are likely for northern coastal Venezuela, the Guajira Peninsula of Colombia and central Nicaragua. Southwest Coasta Rica and Southwestern Panama is forecast to receive 4 to 8 inches of rain with locally up to a foot. The ABC Islands will likely pick up 3 to 6 inches of rain.

Swells generated by Thirteen will affect the ABC Islands and portions of the coasts of northwestern Venezuela and the Guajira Peninsula of Colombia through the day today. Swells could reach Jamaica, Providencia and San Andres on Saturday and then portions of the coast of Central America on Sunday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surge and rip currents.

Interests in San Andres, Providencia and portions of Central America should closely monitor the progress of this system. Watches could be required for portions of that area later today or tonight.