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Duration: 1:09. Description, summary, key points, chapters, key quotes, questions and transcript, where present, were produced automatically from the video or its captions and were not reviewed. ## Summary The video discusses how to read snowfall maps on social media and avoid falling for fake or exaggerated predictions. Weatherbug meteorologist Kate Kerrigan explains that weather models are computer simulations that start with a snapshot of the atmosphere and project it forward in time, but tiny errors can grow into big differences later. To not fall for hype maps, viewers should check when the model was initiated, what the map is counting as snow, and look for agreement between different sources. The video provides tips on how to critically evaluate snowfall maps online. It emphasizes the importance of understanding the limitations of weather models and being cautious of predictions that are too far in the future. ## Key points - A single model run can be misleading, especially if it's a week before the storm (00:11) - Predictions beyond 3 days have lower confidence, and beyond 5 days is a pretty blind guess (00:41) - The snow-to-liquid ratio can vary, affecting the accuracy of snowfall predictions (00:50) ## Key quotes - [00:11] "nothing makes me cringe more than seeing a screenshot of a single model run saying that some place is going to get 30 plus inches of snow a week before the storm" ## Questions this video answers - How can I spot fake snowfall maps on social media? [00:04] - What are weather models and how do they work? [00:20] - How can I evaluate the accuracy of snowfall predictions online? [00:38] ## Transcript [00:00] The first snowstorm of the season is almost here, which means the fake clickbait snowfall [00:04] maps are too. Here's how to spot them and make sure you don't fall for the hype. [00:07] I'm Weatherbug meteorologist Kate Kerrigan and nothing makes me cringe more than seeing [00:11] a screenshot of a single model run saying that some place is going to get 30 plus inches [00:15] of snow a week before the storm. So it's important to understand where these model runs are even [00:20] coming from. Weather models are computer simulations that start with a snapshot of the atmosphere [00:24] and project it forward in time. But that starting snapshot is never perfect and tiny errors early [00:30] on could grow into big differences later. [00:31] That's why one model run could show a blizzard, and the next run shows almost nothing. [00:35] So here's how to not fall for those hype maps online. [00:38] First, check when the model was initiated versus when it's valid at. [00:41] Anything beyond 3 days is lower confidence, and anything beyond 5 is a pretty blind guess, [00:46] so don't take those totals seriously. [00:47] Second, check what the map is actually counting as snow. [00:50] If you see a 10 to 1 near the top, that means that the map is assuming that each inch of [00:53] liquid becomes 10 inches of snow, when in reality that ratio can be anywhere from 5 to 1 for wetter [00:59] Slush and 25 to 1 for really cold powder. [01:02] And third, look for agreement. [01:03] If one map shows two feet of snow but the National Weather Service is saying a fraction of that, [01:07] the big one is probably the outlier. 13 minutes ago ## More Featured Videos [0:15Atmospheric Moisture Caused Heavy Rain in TX12 hours ago](/weather-videos/Extreme/20261110-Atmospheric-Moisture-Caused-Heavy-Rain-in-TX) [4:19Drone Delivers Food to Chimpanzee18 hours ago](/weather-videos/Animals/20261110-Drone-Delivers-Food-to-Chimpanzee) [1:08First Snow for Parts of the Northeast1 day ago](/weather-videos/Forecast/20261110-First-Snow-for-Parts-of-the-Northeast) [0:20Frost Advisory Issued for Eastern Kentucky1 day ago](/weather-videos/Extreme/20261109-Frost-Advisory-Issued-for-Eastern-Kentucky) [3:25Deputies Wrangle Alligator From Condo1 day ago](/weather-videos/Animals/20261109-Deputies-Wrangle-Alligator-From-Condo) [0:20Rain Slams Northern Oregon Coast2 days ago](/weather-videos/Extreme/20261109-Rain-Slams-Northern-Oregon-Coast) [0:15Rainbow Dazzles New York City Residents2 days ago](/weather-videos/Extreme/20261108-Rainbow-Dazzles-New-York-City-Residents) [4:09Cowboys Rescue Cattle From Floods3 days ago](/weather-videos/Animals/20261107-Cowboys-Rescue-Cattle-From-Floods) [0:28Suspected Shark Seen in Florida Floodwater4 days ago](/weather-videos/Animals/20261106-Suspected-Shark-Seen-in-Florida-Floodwater) [1:05November Still Matters for Hurricane Season4 days ago](/weather-videos/Educational/20261106-November-Still-Matters-for-Hurricane-Season) [0:36 Firefighters Dress as Superheroes5 days ago](/weather-videos/Fun/20261106--Firefighters-Dress-as-Superheroes) [0:05Lightning Flashes Over Fort Lauderdale5 days ago](/weather-videos/Extreme/20261105-Lightning-Flashes-Over-Fort-Lauderdale) [1:44Severe Flooding Envelopes Home5 days ago](/weather-videos/Extreme/20261105-Severe-Flooding-Envelopes-Home) [0:58RV Swept Sideways by Floodwaters6 days ago](/weather-videos/Extreme/20261105-RV-Swept-Sideways-by-Floodwaters) [0:17Devastating Durango Flooding6 days ago](/weather-videos/Extreme/20261104-Devastating-Durango-Flooding) [1:13 The Most Rain Ever Recorded in Every State6 days ago](/weather-videos/Educational/20261104--The-Most-Rain-Ever-Recorded-in-Every-State) [1:49More Dangerous Than Nighttime Tornadoes7 days ago](/weather-videos/Educational/20261104-More-Dangerous-Than-Nighttime-Tornadoes) [2:14Couple Rescued From Flooded Home7 days ago](/weather-videos/Extreme/20261103-Couple-Rescued-From-Flooded-Home) [0:53Man Floats Down Swamped Street7 days ago](/weather-videos/Extreme/20261103-Man-Floats-Down-Swamped-Street) [0:18Roads Washed Away During Flash Flooding8 days ago](/weather-videos/Extreme/20261103-Roads-Washed-Away-During-Flash-Flooding) We use technologies, such as cookies, to analyze your use (i.e., pages visited), to customize content, for our internal analytics purposes and for security and other purposes. 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