Severe Storm Risk - Charlottesville, VA

There is a Marginal Severe Storm Risk for your location. Continue reading for today's outlook from the National Weather Service's Storm Prediction Center. -------------------- National Severe Storm Outlook THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER/MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS AND MIDWEST CORRECTED FOR INCORRECT CATEGORICAL GRAPHIC SUMMARY Scattered to numerous severe thunderstorms with potential for large hail in excess of two inches in diameter, a few strong tornadoes and damaging winds with gusts over 75 mph are expected this afternoon and evening across parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley and Midwest. Mid/Upper MS Valley into the central Plains Regional radar imagery shows an ongoing cluster of strong thunderstorms across southern IA and northern MO, supported by a residual low-level jet that currently extends from KS/northern OK into the region. Heating of the very moist airmass downstream will result in limited convective inhibition and strong to very strong buoyancy by the early afternoon. Reintensification of the ongoing cluster is anticipated as it moves within this destabilizing airmass. Deep-layer shear will be modest but still sufficient for some organization, and the development of a strong to occasionally severe bowing line segment appears probable, particularly from northeast IA into southern WI and northern IL. New updrafts ahead of the line could also produce hail early in the convective cycle, while also potentially contributing to updraft augmentation as they merge into the line. Some isolated hail could result from this augmentation as well. Farther north, recent surface analysis placed a triple point low over northeast SD. An occluded front extends north-northwestward from this low across eastern ND into central Manitoba, while cold front extends southward to another low over northeast NE and then back southwestward across the central Plains. The frontal zone and triple point low are forecast to progress eastward into the Upper Midwest, interacting with a diurnally destabilizing airmass to support thunderstorm development. Ample low-level moisture (i.e. dewpoints in the upper 60s/low 70s) will support strong buoyancy, despite modest lapse rates, and moderate deep-layer vertical shear should be sufficient for updraft organization. As a result, strong to severe thunderstorms are expected along and just ahead the front, with large hail as the primary threat. Isolated very large hail to 2" in diameter could occur. Some damaging gusts are possible as storms transition into bowing line segments over time. There is also a low-probability for a few brief tornadoes, particularly with any more cellular development from central into eastern WI from 21 to 00Z. An additional severe threat will likely materialize this evening in the wake of the afternoon MCS within the recovered airmass from the Mid MS Valley westward through the Mid MO Valley into the central Plains. The impetus for this redevelopment will likely be a complex combination of low-level convergence along the approaching front, low-level convergence and warm-air advection along remnant outflow, and modest large-scale ascent. Development along the front appears most likely from central IA southwestward into northeast KS, while development along the outflow appears most likely northwest IL across southern IA. The airmass in all of these areas will likely feature ample low-level moisture (i.e. dewpoints in the low to mid 70s), warm surface temperatures (highs in the low 90s), and at least modestly steep mid-level lapse rates. This will result in strong to extreme buoyancy, with MLCAPE values exceeding 3000 J/kg from northeast KS into southern IA, northern MO, and west-central IL. Complex surface pattern will likely yield limited predictability for the primary severe hazard this evening. Given the extreme buoyancy and moderate mid-level flow, any more cellular development that is able to mature should become supercellular, with all severe hazards possible, including very large hail and tornadoes. Storm interaction and strong downdrafts will likely make maintaining a discrete mode difficult, but low-level hodographs support the potential for a strong tornado, particularly from 00 to 03Z amid a strengthening low-level jet. Lastly, early morning strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across central/eastern NE as a secondary branch of the low-level jet develops in response to another shortwave trough moving into the central High Plains. Ohio Valley/Central Appalachians/Mid-Atlantic States A moist and unstable airmass will be in place today across much of the region, with surface dewpoints generally in the lower 70s F. While some thunderstorms are ongoing early today, additional and more potent thunderstorm development is expected into the afternoon as the boundary layer destabilizes. These storms will be further influenced by a pair of weak eastward-moving MCVs, one over the upper Ohio River Valley and the other over the central Appalachians. Damaging winds, associated with water-loaded downbursts, will be the primary hazard regionally.