Severe Storm Risk - Durant, OK

There is a Marginal Severe Storm Risk for your location. Continue reading for today's outlook from the National Weather Service's Storm Prediction Center. -------------------- National Severe Storm Outlook THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NORTH TEXAS INTO WESTERN TENNESSEE SUMMARY Widely scattered severe storms are possible this evening from north Texas, much of Arkansas, and into western Tennessee. Large to very large hail, severe gusts, and a few tornadoes are possible. Discussion Two areas of thunderstorm development are noted this evening: one near the cold front extending across northwestern Arkansas and another southward into north Texas near the cold front interface with the dryline in central Texas. These two areas will be the targets of interest for severe storm development this evening. Arkansas A cluster of elevated cells have developed in the vicinity of the cold front in northwestern Arkansas. These have been slow to mature, likely owning to remaining surface inhibition observed from NSSL LIFT soundings from central Arkansas. This is also observed in surface objective analysis, with moderate to strong CAPE in place across much of central/southern Arkansas. Hi-res guidance suggests that additional development will be likely through the evening. The shear profiles across the region are supportive of supercells, given strong deep layer shear at 65+ kts. If these cells can become surface based through time, the tornado risk will increase. Surface objective analysis indicates STP around 3-4 across southwestern Arkansas into central Arkansas. Through time, additional development along the front will become more linear and support an increase in damaging wind potential. North-Central and Northeastern Texas/Southwestern Texas Thunderstorms have developed across the north side of the Dallas metro this evening near the interface of the dryline with surface boundaries and the cold front. Conditionally, if supercells develop across this region potential for large hail will be possible. Guidance also suggests convective development will be possible near the Mexico border in far southwestern Texas. A conditional risk for large to very large hail will extend into this region as well this evening.