Severe Storm Risk - Portage, WI

There is a Slight Severe Storm Risk for your location. Continue reading for today's outlook from the National Weather Service's Storm Prediction Center. -------------------- National Severe Storm Outlook THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER PARTS OF EASTERN KANSAS...SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA...NORTHWEST MISSOURI...AND SOUTHWEST IOWA SUMMARY Numerous severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening across the south-central Plains and mid Missouri Valley. Supercells capable of producing very large to giant hail and multiple strong to intense tornadoes are most likely from central Kansas and southeast Nebraska into Iowa and northwest Missouri. Central Plains Morning water vapor loop shows a potent shortwave trough rotating across the central Rockies into western KS. The primary surface boundary extends from western IA into central KS, with a pronounced outflow boundary associated with overnight convection extending from southeast KS into southern MO. The outflow boundary will lift northward today, allowing a very moist and extremely unstable air mass to spread into eastern KS/northwest MO/extreme southeast NE/southwest IA. This is the area most concerning for intense supercells later today. Initial storms are expected to develop by early afternoon near the triple point of the retreating outflow boundary and cold front. These storms will track northeastward through the afternoon and early evening in a strongly sheared environment favorable for tornadoes, very large hail, and damaging winds. It remains unclear how stormscale interactions will impact discrete supercell mode, but strong tornadoes are a concern in this region. Farther southwest, thunderstorms will develop in vicinity of the cold front across south-central KS by late afternoon. Recent CAM solutions suggest these storms may be affected by the linear frontal forcing, and may be slightly anafrontal. This would lessen the tornado risk, but very large hail and damaging winds would remain a concern. No changes have been made to the Moderate Risk area due to conflicting model signals. Western OK/Northwest TX Full sunshine will lead to hot temperatures along the dryline over western OK into northwest TX. At least isolated thunderstorms are expected to form in this area, with a risk of large hail and damaging winds. Weak large scale forcing may limit storm duration and intensity. OH Valley/Great Lakes A line of thunderstorms along the IL/IN border is tracking northeastward into a warm/moist air mass. Relatively strong low-level wind fields and steep low-level lapse rates suggest a continued risk of scattered wind damage with the strongest storms as they track across parts of IN/Lower MI/Northwest OH.