Severe Storm Risk - Shakopee, MN

There is a Slight Severe Storm Risk for your location. Continue reading for today's outlook from the National Weather Service's Storm Prediction Center. -------------------- National Severe Storm Outlook THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MID MISSOURI VALLEY SUMMARY Severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon into tonight across parts of the southern/central Plains to the Upper Midwest. Supercells with very large hail and strong tornadoes are possible initially this afternoon, before one or more bowing clusters leads to a greater threat for severe/damaging winds this evening. 20z Update portions of the northern MO Valley and Midwest Earlier elevated convection across southern SD has gradually strengthened into a broader convective complex ahead of the cold front this afternoon. Current expectations are for this cluster, and additional supercells to evolve near the synoptic warm front near the SD/NE/IA and MN borders this afternoon/evening. Strongly backed low-level flow will support a tornado risk with a mixed convective mode before upscale growth into an MCS/bowing cluster this evening. Thereafter, a significant damaging wind threat with a few embedded tornadoes may evolve along the warm frontal corridor across northern IA and southern MN tonight. Damaging wind probabilities have been increased ahead of this cluster. Farther south, a CIG2 tornado area was considered across eastern NE and west-central IA given the presence of STP 4-7 possibly overlapping with discrete supercells. However, numerous storms are expected ahead of the cold front with expected interactions casting uncertainty on the longevity of the more discrete storms. Regardless, a volatile thermodynamic and kinematic environment (RAP ESRH 300-400 m2/s2) could support the threat for a higher-end tornado this evening across southeastern NE and southwestern IA should supercells remain more discrete. Southern OK and North TX Modest ascent from a subtropical jet over portions of TX could support isolated thunderstorm development in the Red River Vicinity to central TX this evening. A broadly unstable environment with 70s F surface dewpoints of sufficient bulk shear for supercells could support some hail or damaging wind risk with any convection able to develop. Confidence in this scenario remains very low. Central High Plains Air mass destabilization is ongoing in the post-frontal upslope flow regime across the central High Plains. Supercells remain likely with large hail, damaging gusts and a tornado or two. Eventually one or more clusters may evolve and spread eastward with an increased risk for damaging gusts tonight. Higher probabilities were shifted southward slightly to better align with the observed cold frontal position. Else where the outlook remains unchanged, see the previous discussion.