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2024 Summer Outlook: A Very Hot, Active Summer Ahead
June 20, 2024 at 01:57 PM EDT
By Weatherbug Meteorologists
Summer will always feature heat, severe weather and tropical activity, but what can we expect from Mother Nature this year? With a developing La Nina and very warm Atlantic Ocean, there will be no shortage of summer heat this year. The tropics look to be active as well, which could deliver heavy rain to portions of the Gulf and East coasts.
Above-average temperatures are likely across much of the country this summer. The heat looks to be maximized across parts of the Southwest, the Rockies and across the Northeast. Climate data favors areas of strong high pressure across parts of the Southwest as well as the Northeast which will favor additional heat waves this summer. The Great Lakes are also unusually warm after minimal ice this past winter which will help to boost temperatures across the Northeast and Great Lakes regions.
There is some potential for below average temperatures along the western seaboard. Below-normal sea surface temperatures reside along the West Coast thanks to the negative phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation.
The North American Monsoon is trending toward producing below-average precipitation across the Southwest this summer leading to dry conditions from western Texas to the northern Rockies. Despite a few significant wildfires ongoing in New Mexico and California, overall wildfire activity has been below normal so far this year. However, a dry forecast this summer will bring above-normal fire danger across the West in the near future, especially in areas of significant drought. This could result in an upswing in wildfire activity for the remainder of this summer, perhaps reaching above-average in some areas.
Drought conditions are likely to persist and expand across western Texas and the Southwest. In the East, a very hot and dry pattern is leading to rapid onset of drought conditions across parts of the Carolinas and the Mid-Atlantic. This could persist well into July before better rain chances arrive later this summer.
The warm Gulf of Mexico is likely to aid in above-average precipitation across Gulf Coast and Florida. Any remaining drought conditions across northern and central Florida are likely to improve. Some drought improvement will also be possible across parts of the southern Plains.
The Atlantic Hurricane Season is expected to be very active this year and we have already had our first named storm. Climate data and analogs favor enhanced tropical cyclone activity for the western Gulf of Mexico and for the southeastern U.S., particularly along the Atlantic coast between Florida and North Carolina.
Stayed tuned to WeatherBug throughout the summer for the latest coverage on all things weather. We will be updating stories daily regarding temperatures, rain and severe thunderstorms, potential tropical activity and any drought.
Above-average temperatures are likely across much of the country this summer. The heat looks to be maximized across parts of the Southwest, the Rockies and across the Northeast. Climate data favors areas of strong high pressure across parts of the Southwest as well as the Northeast which will favor additional heat waves this summer. The Great Lakes are also unusually warm after minimal ice this past winter which will help to boost temperatures across the Northeast and Great Lakes regions.
There is some potential for below average temperatures along the western seaboard. Below-normal sea surface temperatures reside along the West Coast thanks to the negative phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation.
The North American Monsoon is trending toward producing below-average precipitation across the Southwest this summer leading to dry conditions from western Texas to the northern Rockies. Despite a few significant wildfires ongoing in New Mexico and California, overall wildfire activity has been below normal so far this year. However, a dry forecast this summer will bring above-normal fire danger across the West in the near future, especially in areas of significant drought. This could result in an upswing in wildfire activity for the remainder of this summer, perhaps reaching above-average in some areas.
Drought conditions are likely to persist and expand across western Texas and the Southwest. In the East, a very hot and dry pattern is leading to rapid onset of drought conditions across parts of the Carolinas and the Mid-Atlantic. This could persist well into July before better rain chances arrive later this summer.
The warm Gulf of Mexico is likely to aid in above-average precipitation across Gulf Coast and Florida. Any remaining drought conditions across northern and central Florida are likely to improve. Some drought improvement will also be possible across parts of the southern Plains.
The Atlantic Hurricane Season is expected to be very active this year and we have already had our first named storm. Climate data and analogs favor enhanced tropical cyclone activity for the western Gulf of Mexico and for the southeastern U.S., particularly along the Atlantic coast between Florida and North Carolina.
Stayed tuned to WeatherBug throughout the summer for the latest coverage on all things weather. We will be updating stories daily regarding temperatures, rain and severe thunderstorms, potential tropical activity and any drought.