All About Groundhog Day

Six more weeks of winter or an early spring? That question is answered every February 2nd during a ceremony that has roots back more than 100 years ago in Punxsutawney, Pa.

Since 1887, a groundhog has been delivering his yearly weather lore in early February. The groundhog dictated if the harsh, cold days of winter were coming to an end or if there was little relief from Mother Nature’s wrath for the next two months.

The tradition takes place in Punxsutawney, Pa., when Groundhog Phil will come out of his burrow early in the morning. If Phil sees his shadow, he will return to his burrow, signaling winter still has six more weeks to go. However, if Phil does not see his shadow, an early spring is on the way!

So, let’s talk statistics. How many times in the past has Phil seen his shadow, and how many times has he not? Out of 126 records, Phil has overwhelmingly seen his shadow 106 times, indicating winter will stick around to close to when the calendar officially flips to spring in March. On only 20 occurrences, or just under 16 percent of the years since the ceremony began, has Phil predicted an early spring.

During the past 10 years, the groundhog's prediction has been correct about 40 percent of the time; this is less than the accuracy of calling heads or tails during the flip of a coin. Phil’s most recent prediction in 2023 for more winter was wrong; the U.S. overall had above average temperatures in both February and March. Hopefully Phil can get back to accurately predicting the nation’s weather this year!

Sources: groundhog.org, ncei.noaa.gov

----------

Story Image: Punxsutawney Phil just before he made his prediction Feb. 2, 2017. (Screengrab via VisitPA.com video)