Hurricane Ian Shares Many Similarities to 2004's Charley | WeatherBug
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Hurricane Ian Shares Many Similarities to 2004's Charley

September 30, 2022
By WeatherBug Meteorologist, Andrew Rosenthal
For some residents along the Florida Gulf Coast, the feeling was like déjà vu as Hurricane Ian slammed ashore at Cayo Costa, Fla. Just 18 years ago, another hurricane, Charley, made landfall at the same location at the same intensity. There are numerous things that are eerily similar about these two storms, but there are other things that are quite different.
 
Hurricane Charley formed in the eastern Caribbean on August 10, 2004. It passed south of Jamaica as a Category 1 hurricane on August 11 before steering across western Cuba as a Category 3 storm with winds of 120 mph. After moving near the western edge of the Florida Keys, Charley rapidly intensified to contain maximum sustained winds of 150 mph as it roared onto the Florida coast on the afternoon of August 13.
 
Very strong winds were reported that evening as the storm crossed central Florida, with Orlando recoding a gust to 106 mph. Charley also survived its passage through the Sunshine State, remaining a hurricane as it re-emerged into the Atlantic, and ultimately made landfall again near Cape Romain, S.C., and near North Myrtle Beach, S.C. on August 14.
 
There are numerous similarities between Charley and Ian. Both storms had a certain element of surprise, with a forecasted landfall near or north of Tampa. Instead, a cold front to the north of each storm pushed the hurricanes slightly east as landfall approached, leading to the landfall at Cayo Costa. Both storms also quickly intensified in the final hours before landfall. While Ian jumped from 125 mph to 155 mph about 12 to 15 hours before coming shore, Charley went from 105 mph to 145 mph in just 5 hours!
 
There are a few differences between the storms. Charley rapidly moved across Florida after landfall, exiting the state within about 7 hours. Ian will instead plod as it moves across the state, likely not re-emerging until Thursday night or Friday morning. This will likely increase some of the impacts with Ian relative to Charley – particularly rainfall totals and wind damage near the storm’s track. Likewise, Charley was a relatively small hurricane, with its core of strong winds only extending about 10 miles from the center. Ian, on the other hand, has been buffeting areas 40 to 50 miles from the center with hurricane force winds.
 
Damage from Charley was estimated at $14.6 billion (2004 dollars) – equivalent to about $23 billion today – and that number is likely to be exceeded due to the storm’s size and slower track. Top rainfall from Charley was about 10 inches in Manatee County, although most locations totaled between 4 and 6 inches of rain. That number is likely to be topped as Ian moves ashore.
 
It is, of course, too early to compare the smaller-scale impacts to the region. Charley’s storm surge produced a new 0.28-mile-wide inlet on Captiva Island, while damaging the majority of the houses on the island. Punta Gorda and Port Charlotte were leveled by the storm, and tens if not hundreds of thousands of buildings sustained damage across the state.
 
One can only hope that despite the similarities between Ian and Charley end there, and that residents of southwestern Florida won’t be repeating the nightmare that they witnessed in 2004.