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Hurricane Season Outlook: Busy One Expected

May 17, 2021
By WeatherBug
The 2021 Atlantic Hurricane Season officially kicks off June 1st, and seasonal predictions for the upcoming season have started. The big takeaway: after the 2020 record-setting year, another above-average season is expected this year.  

Earth Networks' meteorologists, in their annual hurricane season outlook, are predicting 16 named storms to form, with eight becoming hurricanes and three of those hurricanes becoming major hurricanes with sustained winds of at least 111 mph. This is well above the long-term Atlantic season average.  

In its early April forecast, the Colorado State University forecast team was predicting 17 named storms, eight hurricanes and four major hurricanes. The government’s forecast will be released later this month.  

Warmer than average water temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico and most areas of the tropical Atlantic Ocean continues to be the top driving force for the above-average hurricane forecasts. The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is expected to be in a neutral phase with a slight chance of a weak La Niña developing later this summer or autumn. Combined, these factors increase the probability of an active Atlantic Hurricane season.

“Part of our forecast methodology involves using machine learning techniques to better decipher complex ocean-atmosphere linkages related to the hurricane season. For 2021, warm water temperatures across the Atlantic, in addition to an increased number of tropical waves rolling off Africa, will lead to an above-normal hurricane season,” says Anthony Sagliani, an Earth Networks’ meteorologist.  

The Atlantic Hurricane Basin includes the Caribbean Sea, Gulf of Mexico, Florida Strait and the tropical and subtropical Atlantic Ocean north of the Equator from the African coast to North and Central America. Between 1991 and 2020, the Atlantic Hurricane Basin produced an average of 14.4 named storms, 7.2 hurricanes and 3 major hurricanes per year.

The 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season was a record setting season. There were 30 named storms— tying the record with 2005— with 14 hurricanes and seven major hurricanes. The season will be remembered for major hurricanes Laura, Delta and Zeta. All of these hurricanes made landfall along the Gulf of Mexico Coast with hurricanes Eta and Iota making landfall along the Central America coast, causing widespread damage. Laura was the most destructive, causing $19.1 billion along the Mexico Yucatan Peninsula and the U.S. Gulf Coast, primarily in southern Louisiana.  

Remember, it only takes one hurricane to bring destructive winds and storm surge. If you live in an area that can be affected by a hurricane, now is the time to prepare for the season ahead by updating emergency plans, refreshing emergency kits and making sure flood and hurricane insurances are up to date.