Drought Continues to Deepen Across Rockies

Despite an active weather pattern in much of the East over the last week, significant drought changes have been very limited. Some improvement was noted across the southern Mid-Atlantic and Mid-South, while the Upper Midwest saw some degradation, thanks to hot weather.

West 

The biggest change in drought conditions across the West came in the Southwest, where the ongoing monsoon has allowed precipitation to be as much as 1.5 to 2 times normal amounts. This led to localized relief of drought conditions from severe (D2) to moderate (D1).

For much of the rest of the interior West, though, recent days have not been as good. Much of Wyoming and Colorado are on track to see their top 5 warmest July thanks to being on the outskirts of a very stubborn northern Plains heat dome. Along with the heat, rainfall has been limited, keeping the region in widespread severe to exceptional (D2 to D4) drought conditions.

Little change in drought conditions has been reported across the West Coast states, with a few pockets of the Columbia and lower Colorado River valleys seeing the addition of abnormally dry conditions. While much of Oregon remains under extreme (D3) drought, the California coast continues to be drought-free this summer.

High Plains 

The entirety of the High Plains saw dry and hot conditions this week thanks to a very large and strong high pressure system. “Flash drought” conditions have begun to affect crop and rangeland conditions across the Dakotas, where temperatures have been as much as 8 degrees above average this month.

Areas that had been able to remove their drought conditions earlier in the year are seeing those conditions return, with most of the Dakotas and Nebraska now covered by at least dry (D1) conditions. The worst of the drought remains nestled ahead of the Front Range and expanded eastward into Nebraska and Oklahoma, where severe to extreme drought is prevalent.

Midwest 

It’s quite the same story in the Upper Midwest, where an expansion of moderate drought conditions has been noted across Wisconsin and especially so in Minnesota. Temperatures in July have been running 4 to 6 degrees above average, making it difficult for localized thunderstorms to produce positive results.

On the other side of the coin, the Mid-Mississippi and Ohio valleys have seen their fair share of rain due to a parade of stalled fronts. This has helped to keep abnormally dry conditions away from the region between St. Louis and Chicago to Cincinnati, Ohio, and Detroit.

South 

While Tropical Storm Bertha slid along the Gulf coast this past week, its rain didn’t make much inland progress across Mississippi and Louisiana. As a result, areas that were in drought conditions – northern Louisiana and much of Arkansas - remained so, with drought-free areas closer to the coast remaining drought-free.

It was much of the same story across Texas, where flash flooding conditions hampered some areas of interior southern and coastal Texas while the Panhandle and Rio Grande saw little rain and thus maintain dry to moderate (D1 to D2) drought conditions. The good news there is that reservoirs are at 78 percent full state-wide, with great conditions across the eastern part of the state despite western reservoirs remaining below normal.

In the Mid-South, periods of thunderstorms did provide some drought relief to Tennessee, where a ribbon of abnormally dry conditions was able to be removed from the map.

Southeast 

North Carolina was the big winner this week when it came to drought changes, with the only 2-step improvement in the country thanks to 1 to as much as 8 inches of rain. Unfortunately, the Tar Heel State started the week with severe to extreme (D2 to D3) drought conditions, so the bounty of rain only brought the region down to abnormally dry conditions (D1). Some improvement was also noted across far southern Virginia, which shared the heavy rainfall this week.

The rest of the South wasn’t quite as lucky, with drought continuing unabated across Georgia, Alabama and Florida. July has been unusually hotter and drier than average for much of Florida, as severe to extreme (D2 to D3) drought conditions remain.

Northeast 

This past week was a mixed bag across the Northeast. Rainfall early in the week produced several inches of rain along the Interstate 95 corridor, but this was offset by cool and dry conditions for the latter half of the week and the weekend. Overall, this has left the Northeast near where it was a week ago, with moderate drought conditions commonplace along the urban corridor and dry conditions across the Appalachians.

Looking Ahead 

Locally heavy rain of 3 to 6 inches fell across parts of upstate New York and western New England, leading to some flooding. For much of the rest of the country, the last couple of days have been pretty barren in terms of rain.

The upcoming week looks to bring some heavy rain to portions of the Gulf Coast, while the rest of the East sees occasional showers and storms over the weekend. High Plains residents may see a few scattered thunderstorms, but they are unlikely to cut much into the drought. Likewise, the Southwest’s monsoon will keep Arizona soggy, but provide little relief to the central Rockies.

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Source: U.S. Drought Monitor