Another Dry Week Leads to Worsening Drought Nationwide

The vast majority of the nation had below-normal precipitation during the past week, so it’s not surprising to see the drought update map has large areas of worsening drought and other areas of no change. There were not any areas of drought improvement in the 48 contiguous states during the past week. Even more concerning is the lack of snow in the western U.S., where virtually every river basin has below normal snow depth, and many areas report less than 50% of normal water equivalent in the snowpack. The only good news was somewhat above-normal precipitation occurred last week from the Pacific Northwest to Montana, but this was not enough to make a dent in the drought.

Northeast

Precipitation was generally light across the region, with many areas receiving below-normal amounts outside of localized lake-effect snow. Short-term precipitation deficits over the past 30 to 60 days are 2 to 6 inches below normal across parts of Pennsylvania, New York and New England, especially in southern and coastal areas. Moderate drought (D1) expanded in eastern Pennsylvania and central New York. In Massachusetts, moderate drought (D1) expanded westward across central portions of the state and into southeastern areas where longer-term precipitation deficits and low groundwater persist. Over 50% of Maine is reporting severe drought (D2). In northeastern Connecticut, northern Rhode Island and adjacent portions of south-central Massachusetts, abnormal dryness (D0) was introduced to reflect continued streamflow, groundwater concerns and ongoing precipitation deficits.

Southeast

Precipitation across the Southeast was generally light and uneven during the past week. Most areas received less than 0.25 to 0.75 inches. Large portions of Alabama, Georgia, the Carolinas and north Florida recorded below 25 percent of normal precipitation for the week. Narrow bands of heavier rainfall brought localized 1-to-2-inch totals across parts of the central Gulf Coast and portions of the eastern Carolinas. Degradations across the region were driven by short- to medium-term precipitation deficits continuing to grow. Soil moisture remains below the 10th percentile across large portions of Alabama, Georgia and the Carolinas, with some areas below the 5th percentile. Stream-flows across parts of Georgia, South Carolina and Alabama remain far below normal, and reservoir levels in portions of the Carolinas continue to run below seasonal averages. Moderate drought (D1) and severe drought (D2) expanded across portions of Alabama, Georgia and the Carolinas. Extreme drought (D3) expanded in parts of Georgia, the South Carolina Upstate and portions of North Carolina where there are longer-term deficits, low stream-flows and very low soil moisture percentiles.

Across Florida, widespread degradations were made as rainfall was scattered and light, with most areas receiving less than 0.5 inches. Extreme drought (D3) expanded across portions of north and south Florida, with over 40% of the sunshine state now experiencing extreme drought. Drought also worsened in parts of the panhandle. Soil moisture percentiles remain below the 10th percentile across much of the state and below the 5th percentile in parts of central and southern Florida. Wildfire activity increased during the week, and multiple water management districts, including the South Florida Water Management District, have issued water shortage advisories or warnings due to declining groundwater and surface water levels.

South

Drought conditions across the South continued to deteriorate this week, as much of the region received little to no meaningful precipitation. Most areas recorded below 50 percent of normal rainfall, with many locations under 25 percent of normal. Portions of middle and northeastern Tennessee received 0.5 to 1 inch of precipitation, but amounts were insufficient to offset ongoing 30- to 90-day precipitation deficits. Degradations occurred across the southern Plains into the Lower Mississippi Valley as short- to mid-term precipitation deficits continue to grow across Louisiana, Arkansas and portions of Texas and Oklahoma, with many areas 2 to 6 inches below normal over the past few months. Soil moisture percentiles remain below normal across much of the region and are particularly low in central Louisiana, southern Arkansas and parts of western Oklahoma and South Texas. Stream-flows in several basins continue to run below seasonal averages, with some gauges in low percentiles following weeks of limited recharge.

In Deep South Texas, long-term dryness continues to intensify. From August 14, 2025, through February 10, 2026, Rio Grande City ranks as the fifth warmest and third driest on record dating back to 1928, while McCook ranks as the second warmest and sixth driest since 1942 according to NWS and NOAA. A nearby Texas Meso-net site near Hebbronville recorded just 3.81 inches over the past 180 days. Another Meso-net site along the Starr and Jim Hogg County line recorded only 0.33 inches of rain during December and January combined. Persistent six-month precipitation deficits and continued warmth reinforced long-term hydrologic stress across the lower Rio Grande Valley.

Midwest

It was another dry week across the Midwest, receiving little to no precipitation while temperatures remained below normal. Snow cover continues across the northern part and portions of the Great Lakes. While most of the Midwest was unchanged this week, widespread degradations were made across portions of Illinois and Missouri where 3-to-6-month precipitation deficits grew, with low stream-flows and below-normal groundwater levels. In central and southern Illinois, water table levels remain well below the 10th percentile at many monitoring sites, and streams are running near or below seasonal norms. Similar short- to mid-term precipitation deficits and declining stream-flows supported expansion of dryness across parts of Missouri, including northwestern, south-central and southeastern areas, with additional intensification near the Missouri-Arkansas border where longer-term deficits continue to grow. Farther north and west, localized expansion of abnormal dryness (D0) occurred in portions of Minnesota and Iowa where recent weather systems largely missed and short-term soil moisture percentiles show drying.

High Plains

The High Plains saw little to no meaningful precipitation this week, with most of the region receiving less than 25 percent of normal precipitation. Any snowfall was light and offered minimal liquid-equivalent benefit. In eastern Wyoming and eastern Colorado, precipitation deficits continue to deepen with soil moisture percentiles declining, and recent above-normal temperatures led to drying where snow cover is limited. This led to expansion of moderate (D1) and severe drought (D2) across parts of eastern Wyoming and Colorado. In western Colorado, areas of extreme to exceptional drought persist. Looking at the Colorado snowpack, the USDA’s Natural Resources Conservation Service reports the lowest water equivalent ever seen in the past 40 years (as of February 12th).

Growing short- to medium-term precipitation deficits, below-normal soil moisture percentiles and elevated evaporative demand led to the introduction of extreme drought (D3) to Nebraska’s Panhandle. Moderate (D1) and severe drought (D2) expanded across southwest South Dakota, the Nebraska Panhandle and the western Nebraska Sandhills. Eastern Nebraska also saw the expansion of abnormal dryness (D0) as the lack of precipitation has led to drying conditions. Across Kansas, degradations occurred primarily in the northwest, south and along the Missouri border in eastern Kansas following another dry week which, like the rest of the region, added to the growing precipitation deficits and drying soil moisture.

West

Precipitation across the West this week was light and uneven. Most low-elevation areas in California, Nevada, Arizona, Utah and western Colorado received little to no measurable liquid precipitation, with seven-day totals generally below 0.25 to 0.50 inches. Mountain snow did fall in portions of the northern Rockies and Pacific Northwest, but accumulations were locally light and patchy. Snowpack and Snow Water Equivalent (SWE) percentiles remain well below normal at many SNOTEL sites: much of Oregon, Washington, Idaho, Montana, Wyoming and western Colorado show SWE values in the lowest 15th percentile.

Temperatures were above normal across broad areas of the interior West, especially in the Great Basin, central and eastern Wyoming, and northern Colorado, where daytime highs ran 5 to 15 degrees above average at times. These warmer temperatures limited snow accumulation in some basins and contributed to surface drying where snow cover was sparse or absent.

Across the Pacific Northwest, isolated precipitation helped maintain existing conditions in parts of western Washington, Oregon and northern California. However, low SWE percentiles and expanding short- to mid-term precipitation deficits led to the expansion of abnormal dryness (D0) and localized moderate drought (D1) in Washington. Despite seeing precipitation this week, areas of Montana still saw degradations where short- to mid-term precipitation deficits, low soil moisture percentiles and poor snowpack continue to be of concern. Across Utah, Nevada and western Colorado, persistent 2-to-4-month precipitation deficits combined with declining soil moisture and thin snowpack have led to further degradations.

Looking Ahead

Over the next five to seven days (Feb. 12–17), a widespread and active precipitation pattern is forecast across much of the western and southern U.S. The heaviest totals are expected from eastern Texas to Arkansas, where widespread amounts of 3 to 5 inches are forecast, with locally higher totals possible. Additional areas of 1 to 3 inches are expected across much of the lower Mississippi Valley, central Gulf Coast, and into portions of the Southeast. Farther west, widespread precipitation is forecast across California, the Great Basin, and into the central and northern Rockies, where liquid-equivalent totals of 1 to 3 inches are expected, with locally higher amounts in favored terrain. Lighter but still meaningful precipitation is forecast across portions of the Midwest and into parts of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. In contrast, much of the northern Plains region is expected to remain relatively dry during this period.

The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) 6-10 day precipitation outlook (Feb. 17–21) favors above-normal precipitation across much of the western United States, including California, the Great Basin, and the northern and central Rockies. Above-normal precipitation is also favored across parts of the northern Plains and Upper Midwest. In contrast, below-normal precipitation is favored across the southern tier from southern Texas eastward across the Gulf Coast and into Florida. Much of the central United States, including portions of the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys, is favored to see near-normal precipitation during this period.