Highly Variable Weather Pattern Creates Mixed Results to Drought Depiction

The weather pattern was highly variable across the U.S. this week, leading to a mix of improvements and degradations to the drought depiction. The Northern Tier was generally more active, while dry weather prevailed across the southern half of the nation.

Northeast

While the Northeast did receive some rain and snow this week, it was mostly light and not enough to improve precipitation deficits, soil moisture or stream-flows. Northern New England remained status quo this week, while southern New England and the Mid-Atlantic did see abnormally dry and drought conditions expand.

Severe drought (D2) was introduced southern Maryland, central Massachusetts and on Nantucket Island.   Severe drought also expanded across northwestern New Jersey and in eastern Pennsylvania (north part of Lehigh Valley up into the southern Poconos). Moderate drought (D1) was added to Washington, D.C., with abnormal dryness to moderate drought (D0-D1) expanding in southwestern Massachusetts, western and central Connecticut, southeastern New York, Long Island, southeastern New Jersey, central Pennsylvania and a good portion of Maryland.

Southeast

An overall dry week was observed across the Southeast this week. However, some areas continue to benefit from rainfall over the last few weeks, where improvements were made to the drought depiction. Otherwise, the lack of rain this week and ongoing precipitation deficits and worsening stream-flows and soil moisture led to drought conditions worsening.

Improvements were seen in southern South Carolina, central and southern Georgia, northern Florida and southeastern Alabama. Most notably, there were significant improvements made to both severe and extreme drought (D2-D3) in central/southern Georgia and northern Florida. Severe drought was also removed from southern Carolina and southeastern Alabama.

The drought depiction worsened in northern and southwestern Virginia, the western Carolinas, northern Georgia, northern Alabama and the central and southern Florida Peninsula. Severe drought (D2) expanded in northern Virginia and west-central Florida (south of the Tampa area). All other spots saw abnormal dryness and moderate drought (D0-D1) expand.

South

Despite cooler than normal temperatures, drought conditions throughout the South generally worsened this week as limited rain did little to improve the growing moisture deficits. However, there was some beneficial moisture in parts of Texas and Louisiana.

Localized changes were made to central Texas near the Abilene area as well as west-central Louisiana. Severe drought (D2) was removed from west-central Louisiana, with moderate drought (D1) also contracting. Abnormal dryness (D0) was removed from central Texas.

Widespread degradations occurred in northern and southern Texas (north of Dallas and near the New Braunfels area), west-central and southeastern Oklahoma, much of northern Arkansas and western and southern Tennessee. There was a significant expansion of extreme drought (D3) in southern Texas. Severe drought (D2) worsened for southern Texas as well as northeastern Arkansas. All other areas saw abnormal dryness and moderate drought (D0-D1) worsening.

Midwest

Unseasonably cold temperatures were observed throughout the Midwest this week, with an uneven spread of precipitation (both rain and snow). Drought conditions largely remain unchanged in northern parts of the region, while there was a mix of improvements and degradations for the central and southern Midwest.

Improvements were made to central Iowa, central Illinois and southeastern Ohio. Severe drought (D2) contracted across central Illinois, while abnormal dryness (D0) improved across central Iowa and southeastern Ohio.

Degradations were made to eastern and southern Missouri, southwestern Illinois and western Kentucky. Moderate to severe drought worsened across southwestern Illinois and eastern and southern Missouri, including near the St. Louis metro area. Areas of severe to extreme (D2-D3) drought now stretch from central Illinois across central Indiana into northwest Ohio. Abnormal dryness (D0) was also added to western Kentucky.

High Plains

The High Plains region was generally active and colder than normal weather this week. While most of the region saw multiple rounds of precipitation, it fell as snow and could not benefit soil moisture or stream-flows much this week. There were some localized changes this week though, both improvements and degradations.

Improvements to the drought were made in eastern South Dakota and northwestern and north-central Wyoming. Abnormal dryness and moderate drought (D0-D1) contracted in northwestern and north-central Wyoming, while abnormal dryness improved for eastern South Dakota.

The drought worsened in southeastern Wyoming and southeastern Kansas. Both spots saw an expansion of moderate drought (D1).

West

A series of Pacific storm systems, which were associated with an atmospheric river, moved across the Northwest and northern Rockies this week. Precipitation was in the form of rain for the lower elevations and snow for the mountains and higher elevations. This rain contributed to major flooding across parts of western and central Washington. However, despite the recent snowfall, snowpack does remain below the normal for this time of year. There were large areas of improvement in the drought depiction for the Northwest and northern Rockies, but a few small degradations did occur.

Meanwhile, a drier and unseasonably warm weather pattern prevailed across the Southwest. Recent rain and mountain snow did limit changes, but drought did worsen in some areas.

Drought improvements were made to western Washington, western Oregon, northern Idaho, portions of northern Montana and central New Mexico. Most notably, severe to extreme drought (D2-D3) contracted across north-central Montana and northern Idaho. An area of severe drought was also removed near the Seattle metro area. Abnormal dryness and moderate drought (D0-D1) improved elsewhere.

The drought depiction worsened for south-central Oregon, northeastern California, west-central Utah and east-central New Mexico. An area of extreme drought (D3) was introduced to west-central Utah, with severe drought (D2) also expanding. Abnormal dryness and moderate drought (D0-D1) worsened across east-central New Mexico. Over 70-percent of New Mexico remains at some level of drought. Abnormal dryness also expanded in south-central Oregon and northeastern California.

Looking Ahead

The forecast over the next week calls for the wettest conditions to occur in the western U.S. thanks to multiple Pacific systems and a continuation of the atmospheric river. This especially includes the Pacific Northwest coast and into northern California, where totals may exceed 5 inches. Moderate to heavy precipitation is also expected across the Cascades and parts of the northern Rockies, with 1 to 4 inches likely, while lighter precipitation extends into the central Rockies and northern Plains.

In contrast, the central and eastern U.S. are expected to see more scattered and generally lighter precipitation. Portions of the Midwest, Ohio Valley, Southeast, and Gulf Coast may receive about 0.5 to 2 inches, with a band of precipitation along the East Coast bringing locally higher amounts from the Southeast into the Mid-Atlantic and parts of the Northeast. Overall, the pattern favors significantly wetter conditions in the West and more variable, limited precipitation elsewhere.

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Source: U.S. Drought Monitor