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Big July Fourth Thunderstorms Eye U.S. Northern-Tier

July 5, 2022
Updated By WeatherBug Meteorologist, Fred Allen
Mother Nature will deliver natural fireworks for Fourth of July celebrations over parts of the northern U.S. through tonight. All severe risks plus flooding rainfall will be on the weather menu for a few select spots.

A complex frontal zone attached to a western U.S. low pressure located from near the Montana-Wyoming border into Iowa and Illinois will foster several hard-to-predict clusters of powerful thunderstorms through this morning. The two most likely locations to experience a dangerous storm encounter include north of the Interstate 94 corridor in Montana to the western Dakotas and near the Interstate 90 corridor across the Lower Great Lakes.

The government’s Storm Prediction Center has issued a Slight Risk for severe weather across these two areas through this morning. Here, a tornado or two is possible, as is hail larger than quarters, and at least a few incidents of damaging wind gusts peaking at 65 to 70 mph. Great Falls and Billings, Mont., Rapid City, S.D., Milwaukee and Madison, Wis. and Chicago, Aurora, and Rockford, Ill., will need to keep a watchful eye to the sky.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been issued for central and eastern Montana, including Miles City and Glendive. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect for far southern Wisconsin, northern Illinois and far northwestern Indiana, including Janesville and Kenosha, Wis., Freeport, Joliet and Chicago, Ill. and Gary, Ind.

These clusters of thunderstorms could be repetitive, especially in southern Wisconsin and northern Illinois to central and southern Michigan and northern Indiana. Here, 1 to 3 inches of rain will be common, with a few spots being soaked by as much as 5 to 7 inches by Tuesday morning. Such high totals in a short time could lead to urban and flash flooding. Remember, if you approach a road covered in water, it is best to “Turn Around, Don’t Drown.”

A similar weather set up will exist on today and Wednesday, allowing the same areas to be at risk for additional storm activity. A new severe wrinkle will be added daily, expanding across much of the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic today and a tad further south into the south-central Appalachian Spine and Carolinas for midweek. These fast-moving disturbances, tracking along the northern perimeter of a big area of high pressure aloft, will team up with increasing heat and humidity to foster hard-to-predict severe thunderstorm development each day.

A pair of Enhanced Risk areas have been highlighted by the government’s Storm Prediction Center over eastern Montana to the western Dakotas and from southeastern South Dakota and northeastern Nebraska to northwestern Iowa. A large Slight Risk blankets central Montana to east of the Interstate 95 corridor in the Mid-Atlantic today.

Cities such as Billings, Mont., Rapid City and Sioux Falls, S.D., Des Moines, Iowa, Chicago and Peoria, Ill., Indianapolis, Cleveland and Cincinnati, Ohio, Pittsburgh, Charleston, W. Va., Washington, D.C., Baltimore, and Philadelphia, are just a few of the cities that could be peppered by dangerous weather on Tuesday.

The government’s Storm Prediction Center has issued a Slight Risk for severe weather from Montana to western South Dakota and from eastern Nebraska southeast to northern South Carolina, much of North Carolina, and southwestern Virginia for midweek. In the Midwest to Carolinas corridor, multiple clusters of thunderstorms could pack a mostly damaging wind risk. Further north near the U.S.-Canada border, a mix of large hail and destructive wind gusts will be possible.

Being aware of your surroundings and having a plan of action are the best ways to stay safe during severe weather events. Have multiple ways to receive warnings for your location and be sure to shelter in a basement or interior room within a well-built structure when severe weather approaches. Also remember that it is always a good idea to stay indoors during thunderstorms of any strength and that it is never a good idea to walk or drive through flooded areas.