Super El Nino Could Impact Wildfire Risk

If you're in Washington, Oregon, or anywhere nearby, you probably already know it's been a dry year. You're not imagining it.

Back in April, about 43% of the Pacific Northwest was in severe drought. By August, that number climbed to 49%, basically half the region.

Normally, this is where the story gets better. Wildfire season in the PNW tends to ease up in September as wetter weather rolls back in. But this year, there's a wrinkle: a potential super El Niño is building, and it could throw that usual pattern off.

What's actually happening

El Niño is expected to keep intensifying over the next couple of months, peaking sometime around November through January before tapering off by spring. That's a big, slow-moving climate pattern, and it doesn't affect every region the same way.

For places like the South, El Niño shifts the subtropical jet stream in a way that tends to bring more rain and snow through the winter.

The Pacific Northwest doesn't get that same deal. El Niño can push the northern jet stream further north, which cuts off some of the moisture the region normally counts on. Less incoming moisture means drought conditions that are already in place have less of a chance to ease up, and in some cases, that can stretch fire season out longer than usual.

What this means for you

To be clear: El Niño isn't a fire-risk button that gets flipped on for everyone. It's more of a lopsided effect, places already dealing with drought are the ones most likely to feel it. If you're in a part of the Pacific Northwest that's already dry, this is a good year to stay a little more alert heading into fall, even after the season would typically start winding down.

A few things worth doing now:

• Keep an eye on local burn bans and air quality alerts, especially into October and November

• If you're in a fire-prone area, don't assume the usual autumn rains will show up on schedule

• Have a plan for smoke days, even if you're not near an active fire, PNW air quality can dip fast during an active season

We'll keep tracking how this El Niño develops and update as the picture gets clearer. For now: dry conditions plus a later-than-usual wet season is a combination worth paying attention to, not panicking over.