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Hurricane Hilary Takes Aim At Southern California
August 18, 2023 at 05:40 PM EDT
By WeatherBug Meteorologist, Andrew Rosenthal
Hurricane Hilary is churning in the eastern Pacific, and is poised to become the first tropical system to directly impact southern California since 1939.
As of 3 p.m. MDT (2 p.m. PDT), Hurricane Hilary was located near 18.7 N, 112.2 W, or about 325 miles south-southwest of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico. This places the storm about 1,025 miles south-southeast of San Diego. With maximum sustained winds of 130 mph, Hilary remains a Category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale as it moves to the northwest at 10 mph. Its minimum central pressure is 948 mb or 28.00 inches.
For the first time ever, tropical related watches have been issued on the coast of California. A Tropical Storm Watch is in place for the southern California coast from Point Mugu to the Mexican border, as well as Catalina Island. This includes the coasts of Los Angeles, Orange and San Diego counties. In addition, it includes the Anaheim and San Diego metro areas, the Interstate 15 corridor from San Diego to San Bernardino, and the San Gabriel and San Bernardino mountains.
In Mexico, a Hurricane Warning is in effect on the west coast of the Baja California peninsula from Punta Abreojos to Cabo San Quentin. A Hurricane Watch remains in place from Cabo San Quentin to Ensenada. A Tropical Storm Warning extends on the Pacific coast of Baja California from Punta Abreojos to Cabo San Lucas, the entire length of the Baja coast of the Gulf of California and the Mexican mainland as far south as Guaymas. A small sliver of the mainland coast of the Gulf of California, from Guaymas to Huatabampito is under a Tropical Storm Watch.
The combination of a large ridge of high pressure in the central U.S. and an upper-level low along the West Coast will force Hilary to move northwestward, parallel to the Baja California coast. It will likely move progressively closer to the coast this weekend, with the center ultimately coming ashore across far northern Mexico or far southwestern California.
Were landfall to occur in California, it would be the first time that a storm has moved ashore on the U.S. West Coast since 1939, and just the third time in the recorded history of the Golden State.
While Hilary is a major hurricane right now, it is expected to continue to weaken. The warm waters of the eastern Pacific that fuel a hurricane turn much colder the further north the storm goes, and Hilary will likely weaken to a tropical storm before it approaches the Southern California coast.
That said, Hilary is likely to be an unprecedented beast for the region. The dry terrain cannot handle heavy rainfall like the East Coast can, as it will run off quickly in flash flooding. With heavy rainfall on the order of 4-8 inches likely across the Inland Empire and Mojave Desert - some areas are likely to receive more rain from the storm than they typically see in a year – the potential exists to turn washes into raging rivers that will sweep away everything in its path. Flood Watches stretch from California to Utah, Nevada and Arizona.
Continue to follow the track of Hurricane Hilary in WeatherBug and follow our stories for the latest information as the storm takes aim at southern California.
As of 3 p.m. MDT (2 p.m. PDT), Hurricane Hilary was located near 18.7 N, 112.2 W, or about 325 miles south-southwest of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico. This places the storm about 1,025 miles south-southeast of San Diego. With maximum sustained winds of 130 mph, Hilary remains a Category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale as it moves to the northwest at 10 mph. Its minimum central pressure is 948 mb or 28.00 inches.
For the first time ever, tropical related watches have been issued on the coast of California. A Tropical Storm Watch is in place for the southern California coast from Point Mugu to the Mexican border, as well as Catalina Island. This includes the coasts of Los Angeles, Orange and San Diego counties. In addition, it includes the Anaheim and San Diego metro areas, the Interstate 15 corridor from San Diego to San Bernardino, and the San Gabriel and San Bernardino mountains.
In Mexico, a Hurricane Warning is in effect on the west coast of the Baja California peninsula from Punta Abreojos to Cabo San Quentin. A Hurricane Watch remains in place from Cabo San Quentin to Ensenada. A Tropical Storm Warning extends on the Pacific coast of Baja California from Punta Abreojos to Cabo San Lucas, the entire length of the Baja coast of the Gulf of California and the Mexican mainland as far south as Guaymas. A small sliver of the mainland coast of the Gulf of California, from Guaymas to Huatabampito is under a Tropical Storm Watch.
The combination of a large ridge of high pressure in the central U.S. and an upper-level low along the West Coast will force Hilary to move northwestward, parallel to the Baja California coast. It will likely move progressively closer to the coast this weekend, with the center ultimately coming ashore across far northern Mexico or far southwestern California.
Were landfall to occur in California, it would be the first time that a storm has moved ashore on the U.S. West Coast since 1939, and just the third time in the recorded history of the Golden State.
While Hilary is a major hurricane right now, it is expected to continue to weaken. The warm waters of the eastern Pacific that fuel a hurricane turn much colder the further north the storm goes, and Hilary will likely weaken to a tropical storm before it approaches the Southern California coast.
That said, Hilary is likely to be an unprecedented beast for the region. The dry terrain cannot handle heavy rainfall like the East Coast can, as it will run off quickly in flash flooding. With heavy rainfall on the order of 4-8 inches likely across the Inland Empire and Mojave Desert - some areas are likely to receive more rain from the storm than they typically see in a year – the potential exists to turn washes into raging rivers that will sweep away everything in its path. Flood Watches stretch from California to Utah, Nevada and Arizona.
Continue to follow the track of Hurricane Hilary in WeatherBug and follow our stories for the latest information as the storm takes aim at southern California.