Winter Forecasting: Variations and Uncertainty

Weather forecasting can be hard, especially when there are winter storms and several different types of precipitation. Let’s look at the variation and uncertainty of winter weather forecasting.

Winter storms often feature tight gradients in snow and weather hazards due to the quick transition from snow to sleet, freezing rain and rain. Therefore, it can be difficult to pinpoint which area will receive the most impactful winter weather.

One complicated factor for winter storm forecasting is elevation. Often the mountains can receive snow while the lower elevations receive rain since air cools the higher it is above sea level. If there is a substantial change in elevation in a short distance, the weather can become quite different very quickly.

Within a winter storm there are often localized heavy bands of snow. While the general footprint of a winter storm can be easy to predict, it’s often difficult to forecast where a narrow band of heavy snow may set up.

Geographical features are not the only factors that impact winter weather forecasting. Computer weather models often have a large spread in forecasted snowfall, especially when multiple days out of an event. This means that it’s important to monitor forecast trends and not buy into one specific model or forecast several days out of an event. Often the forecast confidence increases as the event approaches, so each forecast closer to the event should be given greater weight.

Obviously, winter weather forecasting can be difficult and features a large spread of uncertainty depending on when and where a forecast is made. Make sure to watch out for WeatherBug updates this season as the threat for winter weather approaches.

Source: weather.gov
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