There’s good news on drought in the western U.S., with considerable rain from northern California into much of the Pacific Northwest, and another storm will soon bring soaking rain to all of California. In contrast, mostly dry weather occurred this week from the Great Plains to the south-central and Southwest U.S., with large areas of deepening drought in Texas and portions of surrounding states.

Locally higher precipitation amounts fell in the Northeast and in portions of the Great Lakes region. This included heavy lake-effect snow in north-central and northwest Indiana. Spotty rainfall amounts of over half an inch fell across the Southeast, but most of the region experienced a dry week. Drier weather in parts of the Great Plains and south-central U.S. led to widespread degradations, especially in Texas, Oklahoma and Louisiana. Heavy precipitation in Oregon and Idaho led to improvements in both states. Montana was split with improvement in the west and degradation in north-central areas. Mostly drier weather in the Southeast led to degradations in Florida and southern Georgia and portions of Virginia. In northeast Illinois, northwest Indiana, Ohio, West Virginia and much of New England, improvements occurred after recent precipitation.

Northeast
Over an inch of precipitation fell this week across much of New York and northern New England, with a few spots receiving over 2 inches. Mostly short-term precipitation deficits improved as a result, leading to widespread improvements in ongoing drought and abnormal dryness in these areas. Despite the recent rainfall, a large area of severe to extreme (D2-D3) drought remains over the Northeast Kingdom of Vermont, central and northern New Hampshire, and the entire southern half of Maine. Meanwhile, areas of moderate drought (D1) remain in eastern Pennsylvania and western New Jersey. In the state of West Virginia, recent precipitation has improved streamflow and decreased precipitation deficits, so drought severity lessened there.

Southeast
Temperatures in the Southeast were mostly above normal this week, and most locations finished the week with less than a half inch of precipitation, with some local exceptions. The dry and warm weather this week led to worsening soil moisture and short-term precipitation deficits in southern Georgia and the Florida Panhandle, where moderate, severe and extreme drought (D1-D3) expanded. Moderate drought (D1) also expanded near Tampa Bay, Fla., where soil moisture and precipitation deficits grew and streamflow dropped. In Virginia, a large area of moderate to severe (D1-D2) drought remains in the central, northern and northwestern parts of the commonwealth. The dry conditions have led to several wildfires, with the USDA Forest Service leading efforts to contain the fires in Craig and Botetourt counties. In contrast, in the southwest part of Virginia, moderate drought (D1) improved, where soil moisture and streamflow improved after recent rainfall.

South
Warmer-than-normal temperatures occurred across most of the South this week. Temperatures in Texas and Oklahoma were especially warm, with many areas in these states finishing the week 4 to 8 degrees above normal. Parts of southwest Texas were even warmer, with some sites finishing the week more than 10 degrees above normal. Most of the South remained dry this week, though a few parts of central and eastern Tennessee received over a half inch of precipitation. Large areas of deepening drought are noted from the southern half of Oklahoma to southwest Arkansas, and from central and eastern Texas into western and southwestern Louisiana. Short-term drought impacts were the big story in southern Oklahoma, where short-term precipitation deficits grew and soil moisture and pond levels dropped and vegetation struggled. Streamflow levels struggled in portions of central and southern Texas, while soil moisture levels also dropped in south Texas amid unusually high evaporative demand for the time of year. Extreme (D3) drought now covers almost all of San Antonio area, and extends eastwards along I-10 towards Columbus, Texas.

Midwest
Precipitation amounts varied across the Midwest this week. Lake-effect snow fell in heavier amounts in northern Indiana, northeast Illinois, southwest Lower Michigan and portions of the Upper Peninsula of Michigan. Over half an inch of precipitation fell across much of Ohio and central and eastern Kentucky. Heavier precipitation amounts recently in north-central Ohio led to improvements, where streamflow and short-term precipitation deficits improved. Heavy snowfall in northwest Indiana and northeast Illinois led to improvement in soil moisture and precipitation deficits and improvements in drought and abnormal dryness. Farther south in east-central Illinois, severe and extreme drought (D2-D3) expanded where streamflow levels dropped, and short-term precipitation deficits worsened. In Indiana, and area of severe to extreme (D2-D3) drought is noted from around Kokomo to Muncie to Fort Wayne. Short-term precipitation deficits grew in south-central and southwest Wisconsin and abnormal dryness and moderate drought (D1) expanded there. Moderate drought (D1) also expanded in the northern Lower Peninsula of Michigan, where short-term precipitation deficits grew alongside declining soil moisture levels. Moderate drought (D1) expanded in a few spots in southeast Missouri, where recent dry weather added to short-term precipitation deficits amid poor soil moisture and streamflow levels.

High Plains
Temperatures in the eastern edge of the High Plains area were near normal, while most of the region was warmer than normal, especially western Nebraska and central and western portions of Colorado and Wyoming. Some precipitation, generally under a half inch liquid equivalent, fell from central South Dakota to northeast Nebraska. Precipitation exceeding one-half inch also fell in northwest Wyoming in the vicinity of Yellowstone National Park and in a section of the Black Hills of South Dakota. Elsewhere, mostly dry weather was the rule across the region. Short-term precipitation deficits grew in parts of eastern Nebraska, where abnormal dryness (D0) expanded in coverage north and northwest of Lincoln. Portions of western Nebraska and adjacent southeast Wyoming and Colorado continued to dry as well, and abnormal dryness and some moderate drought (D0-D1) grew in these areas. In south-central Colorado, localized degradations were also due in part to effects from longer-term precipitation deficits.

West
Temperatures were above normal across the region. Parts of the Northwest saw moderate to heavy precipitation amounts this week, while most areas from central California southward and eastward were dry. Many parts of northwest Montana and northern Idaho received half an inch to 2 inches of precipitation this week. Eastern Washington mostly received over a half inch of precipitation, while western Washington, western Oregon and north-central and northwest California received heavier amounts ranging from 2 to locally over 5 inches of precipitation. Recent precipitation helped to improve streamflow and precipitation deficits across much of Idaho. In just one week, Idaho’s percentage of severe drought (D2) coverage went from 46-percent to 24-percent, showing widespread improvements in drought conditions. Recent precipitation events have also led to drought improvements in large areas of western Montana. Severe drought (D2) was also removed in northwest Oregon after recent heavy precipitation improved streamflow levels and lessened short- and long-term precipitation deficits. In north-central Montana, drought conditions worsened as weather stayed mostly dry, leading to larger short-term precipitation deficits and low streamflow levels.

Looking Ahead
For November 13 through November 17, the National Weather Service (NWS) Weather Prediction Center is forecasting heavy precipitation to fall across parts of the western U.S. Precipitation amounts from 3 to 5 inches (locally higher) may fall across large portions of California, especially the southwest coastal areas and portions of the Sierra Nevada. Heavy precipitation amounts from 2 to 5 inches (locally higher) are also anticipated in parts of northwest Washington and the Olympic Peninsula. Over 0.75 inches of precipitation is also forecast in southeast California, southern Nevada, portions of western and central Arizona and southwest Utah. A few other locales may receive an inch or more of precipitation, including the San Juan Mountains in southwest Colorado and parts of the northern Idaho Panhandle and northwest Montana. Much drier weather is forecast across most of the rest of the Contiguous U.S. for this period, though some parts of New York and New England may receive over a half inch of precipitation.

For the period from November 18-22, the NWS Climate Prediction Center forecast favors above-normal precipitation across much of the Contiguous U.S., especially from the Southwest northeastward to the Lower Ohio River Valley. Drier-than-normal weather is slightly favored in northeast parts of Maine, while near-normal precipitation amounts are most likely in the Florida Peninsula.

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Source: U.S. Drought Monitor

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