Weather Alerts For Albion, NE

There is a Marginal Severe Storm Risk for your location. Continue reading for today's outlook from the National Weather Service's Storm Prediction Center. -------------------- National Severe Storm Outlook THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN NEBRASKA INTO WESTERN/CENTRAL IOWA SUMMARY Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms should occur across parts of eastern Nebraska into western/central Iowa this afternoon and evening. Large hail, severe gusts, and a few tornadoes all appear possible. Central Plains into Iowa A seasonably strong mid-level shortwave trough with 50-70+ kt mid-level jet will advance quickly east-northeastward across the northern Plains and south-central Canada today. Mid/upper-level ridging will remain prominent over much of the Southeast and OH Valley. Between these two features, a belt of around 30-50 kt mid-level west-southwesterlies will persist across the central Plains into the lower/mid MO Valley. The primary surface low over the northern Plains this morning will develop into southern Saskatchewan/Manitoba by this evening, with a secondary surface low likely to form along/near the NE/SD border by late afternoon. Greater low-level moisture across KS will attempt to lift northward along a warm front today across the central Plains ahead of a cold front that will sweep southeastward across the northern/central Plains through the period. Ongoing convection this morning across the central Plains/mid MO Valley is being aided by warm/moist advection associated with a strong south-southwesterly low-level jet. This activity should tend to remain elevated and sub-severe as it tracks quickly east-northeastward through the late morning before eventually weakening. In its wake, destabilization is forecast to rapidly occur across eastern NE/western IA as rich low-level moisture quickly streams northward. There is still some variability in short-term guidance with the degree and northward extent of low-level moisture return through late afternoon across this region, which introduces a fair amount of uncertainty regarding how unstable the warm sector will become. Even so, a narrow corridor of moderate to strong instability (MLCAPE 2000-3000+ J/kg) appears plausible across eastern NE/western IA and vicinity by 21-00Z, assuming surface temperatures can warm into at least the low to mid 80s. Robust thunderstorms should develop along or just ahead of the cold front by late afternoon/early evening across eastern NE, with strengthening/favorable deep-layer shear for supercells initially. Large hail may occur, but modest lapse rates aloft and a quick mode transition to mainly clusters/line segments will probably limit the spatial/temporal extent of the hail threat. Nearly all guidance continues to show a favorable environment for tornadoes across eastern NE/western IA as the supercells/clusters spread quickly eastward this evening, with a 40-50 kt low-level jet aiding the development of ample effective SRH. But, various RAP forecast soundings across this region show lingering low-level inhibition, and it remains unclear whether convection will be able to fully take advantage of the strong low-level shear. Even with this uncertainty, a sustained surface-based supercell in this environment would conditionally be capable of producing a strong tornado. Otherwise, severe/damaging winds should become an increasing concern as clusters develop and spread east-northeastward. Weak instability with eastward extent in eastern IA and vicinity should limit the severe risk tonight. While deep-layer shear will be somewhat weaker with southward extent across the central Plains, at least isolated severe gusts may also occur with high-based/loosely organized convection that develops this afternoon from eastern CO into western/northern KS along a surface trough. Confidence remains too low in a more focused corridor of severe wind potential across this region to include greater probabilities with this update. Northern Plains A band of elevated thunderstorms is occurring this morning across the Dakotas as large-scale ascent preceding the shortwave trough overspreads the northern Plains in tandem with strong low-level warm advection. Latest surface observations and recent RAP forecast soundings across this region show cool and stable conditions in the boundary layer, which limits confidence in an isolated severe wind threat this morning as convection moves quickly northeastward. Still, small hail and gusty winds may occur given the enhanced background/gradient wind field and sufficient MUCAPE present, with some convective enhancement possible. Southwest/Four Corners Scattered thunderstorm development will occur later today from western CO and southeast UT into parts of AZ/NM as a fairly moist low-level airmass gradually destabilizes. Modestly enhanced mid-level westerly flow should be present this afternoon over parts of UT/CO, though it is uncertain if diurnal heating and related instability will be sufficient for an organized severe risk. Still, isolated gusty winds and small to perhaps near-severe hail could occur with the strongest thunderstorms. Farther south, flow will be weaker across AZ, resulting in mostly disorganized convection. Even so, localized strong gusts appear possible, especially where stronger heating occurs and steeper low-level lapse rates develop during the afternoon. Overall, confidence in an organized severe risk is too low to include 5% hail/wind probabilities at this time. Eastern North Carolina A cold front will move southward across NC today. Large-scale ascent will generally be weak, though isolated convective development may occur as the front encounters greater low-level moisture and sea breeze boundaries over coastal/eastern NC. Deep-layer shear within a northwesterly mid-level flow regime will be sufficient for organized thunderstorms, but poor mid-level lapse rates should tend to limit updraft intensity and the overall severe threat. Regardless, any thunderstorms that can develop and be sustained in this regime could produce locally gusty winds and small hail.