Weather Alerts For Allendale, SC

There is a Marginal Severe Storm Risk for your location. Continue reading for today's outlook from the National Weather Service's Storm Prediction Center. -------------------- National Severe Storm Outlook THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND THE OZARKS INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SUMMARY Strong to severe thunderstorms capable of producing scattered severe/damaging winds and occasional hail will be possible this afternoon and evening from parts of the southern/central High Plains to the Ozarks and mid Mississippi Valley. Southern/Central High Plains Mid-level heights should slowly rise today as an upper ridge builds over the western CONUS. Still, high-based thunderstorms are forecast to form across the higher terrain of the southern/central High Plains this afternoon in a weak low-level upslope regime. The airmass farther east into western KS may tend to remain capped, but sufficient instability should exist to support surface-based thunderstorms with an associated threat for scattered severe/damaging winds from southeast CO into northeast NM and parts of the OK/TX Panhandles. This should especially be the case where strong daytime heating steepens low-level lapse rates through deep mixing of the boundary layer. Have adjusted the Slight Risk westward a bit across the southern/central High Plains with this update, in line with recent model guidance showing the more favored corridor for severe gusts this afternoon/evening. Isolated hail may also occur with the stronger cores given moderate deep-layer shear, but the tendency for clustering/quick upscale growth suggests that severe winds should be the primary threat. Ozarks to the Mid Mississippi Valley A well-defined MCV remains clearly evident on regional radar and satellite imagery this morning along the NE/KS border. This MCV will likely develop east-northeastward into southern IA/northern MO by this afternoon. A small cluster ongoing across central MO may continue to pose a threat for severe/damaging winds in the short term. (See Mesoscale Discussion 1572 for more details.) Otherwise, a convectively reinforced front to the MCV's south should serve as a focus for renewed thunderstorm development later today as the seasonably moist airmass across the Ozarks into the mid MS Valley gradually destabilizes. Moderate to locally strong instability coupled with modestly enhanced mid-level westerly flow and sufficient deep-layer shear should promote organized severe convection, including the potential for supercells. Both large hail and severe/damaging winds may occur with this initially discrete activity, before a tendency for clustering results in a greater risk for damaging winds with eastward extent into the Ozarks/mid MS Valley through this evening. Some adjustments have been made to the Slight Risk across these regions based on latest guidance and observational trends. Tennessee Valley/Southeast to the Mid-Atlantic/Ohio Valley An MCV which developed from earlier convection across the mid MS Valley/Mid-South has slowly moved eastward across the lower OH Valley early this morning, with a trailing flank of thunderstorms over the Mid-South/TN Valley being aided by a west-southwesterly low-level jet. This feature is forecast to track generally eastward through the day, and may aid additional convective development later today across parts of the southern Appalachians into the Carolinas. While deep-layer shear will remain modest, moderate instability developing over lower elevation locations should support some risk for damaging winds with multicell clusters that spread eastward this afternoon/evening. A somewhat separate area of thunderstorm development is also forecast farther north across parts of the Mid-Atlantic/OH Valley where multiple weak mid-level perturbations should develop eastward in generally zonal flow aloft. While mid-level winds and related deep-layer shear will be slightly stronger across this region compared to areas farther south, instability should be weaker. Regardless, occasional strong/damaging winds may occur with any thunderstorm clusters that can develop along/south of a front this afternoon across the Mid-Atlantic/OH Valley. Western Florida Peninsula Mid-level ridging extending from the western Atlantic over the FL Peninsula is forecast to move little today, with weak winds aloft forecast. Most guidance continues to suggest that thunderstorms will develop this afternoon along the Gulf Coast sea breeze across parts of the western FL Peninsula in a moderately to strongly unstable environment. Rich low-level moisture characterized by total PWAT values around 2 inches coupled with steepened low-level lapse rates due to diurnal heating may support isolated strong to severe downdraft winds with the more robust cores that develop this afternoon. Northern Plains/Upper Midwest Upper ridging will become more prominent today over much of the Southwest/Great Basin northeastward into the northern Plains and central Canada. Even so, isolated to scattered thunderstorms may develop this afternoon along/near a weak front from parts of eastern SD and vicinity into western MN. Mid-level north-northwesterly flow should remain weak to modest across this region, which will limit deep-layer shear and overall updraft organization. Still, a signal for isolated gusty winds/hail with loosely organized clusters remains apparent, if convection can form.