Weather Alerts For Arden, NC

There is a Slight Severe Storm Risk for your location. Continue reading for today's outlook from the National Weather Service's Storm Prediction Center. -------------------- National Severe Storm Outlook THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTH GEORGIA INTO SOUTHERN VIRGINIA AND ACROSS THE DAKOTAS INTO WESTERN MINNESOTA SUMMARY Scattered damaging wind gusts are possible this afternoon over portions of the Southeast. Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of severe wind gusts and large hail are possible late this afternoon through the evening across parts of the Upper Midwest. Southeast Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a mid-level trough over the Gulf of St. Lawrence and the Northeast U.S. moving east towards the western Atlantic. A seasonably strong cold front over the OH Valley eastward into the northern Mid-Atlantic states, will push south before weakening over VA. A very moist airmass evident in 12 UTC area raobs (14-15 g/kg lowest 100-mb mean mixing ratios) will heat/destabilize across VA into the southern Appalachians. Scattered thunderstorms will likely develop by midday into the early afternoon both over the higher terrain and near the front. Slightly stronger westerly flow over VA into the northern half of NC will favor eastward-moving clusters this afternoon. High PW and steepened low-level lapse rates will likely favor water-loading within the stronger downdrafts. Scattered 50-60 mph gusts capable of wind damage will be the primary hazard. Farther southwest over GA into AL, a couple of bands of storms may yield wind-damage potential with the stronger downdrafts. Isolated severe gusts are also possible across parts of the central FL Peninsula northward into southern GA. Upper Midwest A mid-level anticyclone will remain centered over the central Rockies as an upper speed max intensifies and overspreads MT eastward into MN. An associated mid-level trough initially over Alberta will pivot east-southeast into Manitoba and adjacent portions of ND-MN. Southerly low-level flow will advect richer moisture northward into the Dakotas/MN region during the day. Models show a relatively narrow tongue of 60s to near 70 F dewpoints to the east of lee trough. In between a southeastward-moving cool front and the lee trough, deep boundary layer mixing is expected. Models generally show 1500-3000 J/kg MLCAPE over the Dakotas by mid afternoon beneath 70 to 90-kt westerly 200-mb flow. Widely scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop across the Dakotas by mid to late afternoon as convective inhibition erodes. Elongated, straight hodographs and effective shear around 40 kt will support an initial supercell mode. Very large hail (1 to 3.5 inches in diameter) is possible with a few of these supercells. As additional storms develop towards the early evening, convective outflow and additional storm mergers may lead to upscale growth of a severe-wind producing linear cluster (most probable over the eastern ND into adjacent SD-MN). Peak gusts with this activity are forecast in the 60-85 mph range. These storms will move east into parts of the eastern Dakotas and western MN before eventually weakening overnight.