Weather Alerts For Burley, ID

There is a Marginal Severe Storm Risk for your location. Continue reading for today's outlook from the National Weather Service's Storm Prediction Center. -------------------- National Severe Storm Outlook THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL MONTANA AND OVER A SMALL PART OF THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY SUMMARY Widely scattered large hail occurrences with hailstones up to two inches are expected over portions of western and central Montana this evening into tonight. More sporadic occurrences of large hail and severe wind gusts appear possible over the northern and central High Plains, and across parts of the lower Missouri Valley. Northern Rockies into the northern Plains Separate vorticity lobes and associated wind maxima will progress into the northern Rockies and northern High Plains tonight with a resultant zone of height falls/forcing for ascent overspreading the region. In the lower levels, a surface cyclone will be maintained over southeast MT while a nocturnal jet develops over the northern and central High Plains. Thunderstorms currently intensifying over western MT are expected to increase in coverage and intensity while spreading into north-central MT ahead of the western vorticity lobe rounding the base of the Pacific Northwest upper low. While the boundary layer is somewhat cool/stable, the presence of steep mid-level lapse rates, MUCAPE up to 1000-1500 J/kg, and 40-45 kt of effective bulk shear will be supportive of supercells with the primary hazard being large hail up to two inches. Farther east, isolated to widely scattered storms have developed along and ahead of a lee trough and the MT surface low from western ND into northeast CO within a steep lapse rate and moderately unstable environment (see the 00Z UNR and LBF soundings). Veering winds with height with up to 35-40 kt of deep-layer shear are sufficient to support an observed supercell storm mode with the primary hazards being large hail potentially in excess of two inches and locally severe wind gusts. A tornado was recently reported with a slow-moving supercell over McKenzie County, ND. However, sizable temperature-dewpoint spreads within the inflow air mass, and the tendency for increasing convective inhibition in the coming hours are likely to limit a continuing tornado threat despite increasing low-level shear. Storm coverage is expected to remain limited through the remainder of the evening with a potential increase later tonight with the arrival of the eastern vorticity lobe and strengthening low-level jet. As such, the threat for sporadic large hail and severe wind gust occurrences may linger into the overnight hours from eastern MT into the western parts of the Dakotas and NE. For additional information, see recently issued mesoscale discussion #2259. Lower Missouri Valley Widely scattered strong to severe storms are ongoing this evening over parts of southeast NE, northeast KS, and northwest MO with activity focused along outflow boundaries and a synoptic front in the area. The inflow air mass remains hot and relatively moist as of 00Z with observed soundings indicating steep low-level lapse rates with MLCAPE up to 1500-3000 J/kg. The 00Z TOP sounding sampled around 30 kt of deep-layer shear, which will remain supportive of episodic supercell structures for the next couple of hours with an associated risk for large hail and locally damaging wind gusts. For additional information, see recently issued mesoscale discussion #2258.