Weather Alerts For Carlsbad Caverns Natl Park, NM

There is a Marginal Severe Storm Risk for your location. Continue reading for today's outlook from the National Weather Service's Storm Prediction Center. -------------------- National Severe Storm Outlook THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER A SMALL PORTION OF SOUTHEAST NM INTO FAR WEST TEXAS SUMMARY Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon over a small part of southeast New Mexico and Far West Texas. 20Z Update Visible satellite imagery shows deepening cumulus and an initial attempt at convective initiation over Far West Texas, although storm tops and lightning activity have decreased since the initial upward pulse. Still, the expectation is for isolated thunderstorms to develop across portions of West Texas into far southeastern New Mexico this afternoon into the evening. Given steep lapse rates, moderate buoyancy, and 0-6km shear of 30-40 kts, some supercell thunderstorm potential exists. Though storm coverage is anticipated to remain low, recent forecast guidance and mesoanalysis data indicate the environment may be supportive of large hail up to 2.5" in diameter. For short term details, see MCD #2412 While minor adjustments to the Marginal Risk area have been made to account for recent trends, the primary change is to introduce a CIG 1 area for hail to reflect the potential for very large hail.