Weather Alerts For Happy Valley, PA

There is a Slight Severe Storm Risk for your location. Continue reading for today's outlook from the National Weather Service's Storm Prediction Center. -------------------- National Severe Storm Outlook THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN NEW YORK THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF MONTANA SUMMARY Scattered to numerous severe thunderstorms are likely across parts of the Great Lakes to the Mid-Atlantic this afternoon through tonight. Damaging winds are the main threat, though some large hail and a few tornadoes may also occur. Scattered severe gusts and isolated large hail appear possible over the northern Rockies/High Plains this afternoon and evening. Lower Michigan into the Mid-Atlantic An ongoing cluster across south-central PA has a well established cold pool and a history of producing damaging winds across western/central PA. This convection is expected to continue moving quickly southeastward through the afternoon across parts of MD/DC/northern VA and vicinity. There is still some uncertainty on whether this cluster will be able to maintain intensity with southward extent into the Mid-Atlantic, as it becomes increasingly removed from the stronger forcing aloft/mid-level flow over the Great Lakes into NY. Still, a differential heating zone remains apparent along/near the Chesapeake Bay per recent visible satellite imagery and surface observations. The cluster should tend to remain on the warm side of this boundary, with steepening low-level lapse rates developing as daytime heating continues to destabilize the downstream airmass. Scattered damaging winds will likely remain a threat with these thunderstorms as they track across the southern Mid-Atlantic before eventually weakening. In the wake of this late morning/early afternoon activity, it appears likely that robust destabilization will occur across parts of lower MI into western NY. 12Z observed soundings from APX/DTX/BUF showed moderate to very strong MUCAPE and modestly steepened mid-level lapse rates with an EML. This favorable airmass will spread eastward through the day in tandem with a mid-level shortwave trough and 50-60 kt mid-level jet also advancing eastward over the Great Lakes and ON. Even with some cloud cover present, moderate to strong instability will likely be in place across western NY by late afternoon, to the west of a differential heating zone/front. Thunderstorms are expected to develop along/ahead of a cold front from parts of southeast Lower MI to the lower Great Lakes, with 50+ kt of deep-layer shear supporting organized updrafts. A mix of supercells and multicells will likely pose a threat for both severe hail and scattered to numerous damaging winds. Sufficient low-level shear should also be present to support a few tornadoes, with some chance for a strong tornado this evening if a supercell mode can be maintained across western NY and vicinity. Confidence has increased in a corridor of greater severe/damaging wind potential late this afternoon/evening across parts of western NY, where an Enhanced Risk has been introduced. Northern Rockies/High Plains High-based thunderstorms have already developed over the higher terrain of central ID this morning. Enhanced winds aloft associated with a northeastward-ejecting mid-level shortwave trough and steep low-level lapse rates will support a risk for scattered severe/damaging winds as this activity spreads northeastward across MT this afternoon and evening. Occasional 75+ mph gusts may occur, even though instability should remain weak. Isolated thunderstorms may also develop later this evening/tonight in a low-level warm advection regime across eastern MT into western ND, with some hail threat. Eastern Utah into the Central Rockies/High Plains Thunderstorms are expected to increase in coverage this afternoon over eastern UT into the higher terrain of northern/western CO and southern WY. This activity will spread northeastward into eastern WY/western NE where a very deep/well-mixed boundary layer should support locally severe gusts.