Weather Alerts For Haxtun, CO

There is a Marginal Severe Storm Risk for your location. Continue reading for today's outlook from the National Weather Service's Storm Prediction Center. -------------------- National Severe Storm Outlook THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM NORTHERN NEBRASKA INTO THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND FAR WESTERN MINNESOTA SUMMARY Thunderstorms with large hail, severe wind gusts, and a few tornadoes will be possible this afternoon and evening in parts of the northern Plains. More sporadic occurrences of large hail and severe wind gusts appear possible across parts of the central High Plains and southwest Texas into southern New Mexico. Northern Plains Morning surface analysis place a wavy and diffuse cold front from central Manitoba southwestward through central ND, western SD to a low in the WY/NE/CO border intersection vicinity. A pair of weak lows exist along this boundary as well, one over southwest SD and the other across central ND. This cold front, as well as these surface lows, will likely contribute to the development of strong to severe thunderstorms this afternoon. Additionally, early morning satellite imagery shows an upper low over southern Saskatchewan, with a shortwave trough rotating through its base over southeast MT/eastern WY. This shortwave likely has an associated belt of stronger flow, but no upper-air data was available to confirm its magnitude. Eastward progression of this shortwave will result in increased large-scale ascent across the frontal zone this afternoon, augmenting the more localized/mesoscale ascent attendant to the surface features. This increased ascent will occur within a diurnally destabilizing airmass where steep mid-level lapse rates atop low to mid 60s dewpoints will likely result in 1500 to 2500 J/kg of MLCAPE by this afternoon. Deep-layer shear is also expected to increase throughout the afternoon amid strengthening mid-level flow attendant to the shortwave. The resulting environment will support supercells capable of all hazards, with the primary hazard predominantly dictated by storm mode. Given the presence of the front, a linear mode will likely dominate, with large to isolated very large hail as the primary risk early in the convective cycle transitioning to damaging gusts thereafter. Strengthening surface southerlies will contribute to some elongation of the low-level hodograph, mostly from central/eastern SD into far southeast ND. This area is also the most likely to produce more discrete cells within the warm sector. As a result, there appears to be a relative increase in the overall tornado risk within this corridor. Central/Southern High Plains Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected across the region this afternoon/evening, both within an arc through the northern and eastern periphery of the MCV currently over northeast NM and the northwestern TX Panhandle and along the lee troughing from eastern CO into southern NM and Far West TX. For storms along the lee trough, weak shear will limit storm organization, but high cloud bases and steep low-level lapse rates could result in occasionally strong downbursts. For storms north and east of the MCV, isolated damaging gusts are the primary risk, although some hail could occur over western KS where mid-level lapse rates are slightly steeper than areas farther south.