Weather Alerts For Lyles, TN

There is a Marginal Severe Storm Risk for your location. Continue reading for today's outlook from the National Weather Service's Storm Prediction Center. -------------------- National Severe Storm Outlook THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN LOUISIANA...CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...AND CENTRAL ALABAMA THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE WESTERN TEXAS HILL COUNTRY SUMMARY Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening from eastern Texas into the lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys/southern Appalachians. Supercells capable of all hazards will be possible across portions of central Mississippi and Alabama before a shift to a more of a damaging wind risk into the late evening/overnight. Synopsis Early-morning satellite imagery shows a pair of phased shortwave troughs, one in the northern stream moving southward into UT/CO and the other in southern stream off the southern CA/northern Baja coast. Strong, confluent flow aloft exists downstream of these shortwaves, with an extensive fetch of moderate to strong southwesterly flow extending from northern Mexico into the Northeast. A general deepening of the upper troughing is anticipated throughout the day as the northern-stream shortwave continues southeastward while the southern-stream shortwave moves gradually eastward. This evolution will result in strengthening mid to upper level flow from the southern Plain into New England, particularly from the Lower MO Valley through the OH Valley where 500 mb flow could exceed 100 kt. This evolution will also push a cold front, which currently extends from the TX Hill Country into western PA, farther south. There will be some displacement between the strongest flow aloft and the more warm and moist conditions south of the front. However, even with this displacement, moderate to strong upper/mid flow is still expected across much of the southern Plains and Southeast. Strong to severe thunderstorms are still expected along and ahead of this cold front from the TX Hill Country through the Southeast and into the Carolinas. Highest coverage of severe thunderstorms will be from central MS into central AL, where supercells capable of all hazards will be possible. East TX/Lower MS Valley into the Southeast Recent surface analysis placed the cold front from near JCT in the TX Hill Country northeastward through the Arklatex, northern MS, and western TN. A weak low exists along this boundary over the western AR/LA vicinity. 70s dewpoints extend from south TX across LA into far western MS and southern AR, with upper 60s dewpoints through much of MS. Low-level moisture advection is expected to continue throughout the day, with mid 70s dewpoints possible from central LA into central MS by the afternoon. This increasing moisture amid filtered daytime heating will result in strong buoyancy ahead of the front (i.e. 2500 J/kg of MLCAPE), despite poor mid-level lapse rates. Also, as mentioned in the synopsis, strong deep-layer shear will be in place, resulting in an overall airmass that supports supercells. However, whether discrete supercells can develop and mature remains uncertain. A combination of neutral height tendencies, widespread cloud cover, and warm-air advection initiated storms will likely lead to complex convective evolution and related storm interactions. Majority of the convection-allowing guidance develops thunderstorms within the warm sector from northern LA into central MS by 18Z. Thunderstorm development is possible along the front from northern AL into northern LA around this time as well. Large to very large hail will be the primary risk with these storms, although there is also a risk for tornadoes if a storm can remain discrete. The tornado risk is expected to increase from the late afternoon through the evening from central MS into central AL as low-level hodographs lengthen in response to strengthening low-level flow. Environmental conditions support the potential for a strong tornado during this timeframe. Whether or not storms can realize this increasing low-level shear will largely be a function of storm mode. Storms should eventually begin to cluster and to grow upscale, with an increasing damaging wind threat continuing downstream into portions of southern Alabama and central/southern Georgia. The front will continue slowly southward, and the very moist environment could support additional warm sector storms throughout much of the evening and overnight, supporting a continued risk for all severe hazards. Several rounds of elevated storms are possible as well, with hail as the primary risk with these storms. TX Hill Country into southeast TX A pair of supercells capable of large hail are currently ongoing across southwest TX (Crockett and Sutton Counties). Environmental conditions are favorable for storm maintenance for at least an hour or two before northward displacement from the better buoyancy leads to weakening. Additional isolated development is possible farther east into central and southeast TX during the afternoon and evening. Any storms that mature would likely be supercellular and capable of producing severe hail and damaging wind gusts.