Weather Alerts For Marquez, TX

There is a Marginal Severe Storm Risk for your location. Continue reading for today's outlook from the National Weather Service's Storm Prediction Center. -------------------- National Severe Storm Outlook THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS SUMMARY Thunderstorms with large hail, severe wind gusts, and potentially a couple of tornadoes are expected this afternoon and evening in parts of the northern Plains. Strong wind gusts and marginal hail will also be possible in parts of the southern and central High Plains. A few severe wind gusts may also occur from southern Georgia into northern and eastern Florida. Northern Plains Morning surface analysis places a low over northwest ND, with a cold front extending southward from this low across western ND and into northwest SD before becoming oriented more southwestward through northeast WY into south-central WY. Warm-air advection showers and thunderstorms are already ongoing in the vicinity of this boundary across ND. General expectation is for these showers to continue while remaining predominantly subsevere. By this afternoon, additional development is anticipated along the slow-moving front from central ND into western SD and far eastern WY. Environment preceding the front will be moist and unstable, with upper 50s/low 60s dewpoints and MLCAPE around 2000 J/kg. Boundary-parallel shear suggest the potential for both an anafrontal character and quickly linear mode across much of ND. Even so, some severe is possible, with large hail (isolated very large) and damaging gusts as the primary risks. The shear orientation becomes a bit less parallel to the boundary with southern extent, and there is some potential for initial supercell structures from south-central ND through western SD and into far eastern WY. Some low-level southeasterly flow is expected near the surface low (which is expected to redevelop southward), resulting in low-level hodographs that indicate some tornado risk. This risk could be countered by high LCLs and the likely quick transition to more linear structures. Some undercutting or movement north of the outflow-augmented cold front is likely with time, and the potential for development of a strong to severe evening/overnight MCS appears limited. Central/Southern High Plains Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are anticipated across the central and southern High Plains today amid moist low-level easterlies/southeasterlies and modest southwesterlies aloft. There is some indication one or two vorticity maxima may move into the region along the northwestern periphery of the southern Plains ridging. Shear is weak and a generally disorganized, outflow-dominant storm structure is expected but some isolated hail and/or damaging gusts are possible sporadically with the strongest storms. Southeast into Central TX Surface analysis places an outflow boundary associated with convective clusters over OK arcing from northwest TX south of the Metroplex and into northeast TX. A hot and humid air mass over central/southeast TX will be supportive of re-development of afternoon thunderstorms along this outflow boundary. Storms will likely track southward through the early evening, posing a risk of locally damaging wind gusts. Southeast AL/southern GA into much of FL A deepening upper trough and associated large-scale ascent will augment mesoscale factors (including surface moisture convergence and sea-breeze boundaries) to support numerous thunderstorms across the region. Strong buoyancy and modest deep-layer shear could support occasional storm organization and robust updrafts capable of producing damaging downbursts. Interactions between ongoing storms and mesoscale boundaries could also augment updrafts, with the resultant water loading also producing occasionally strong gusts.