There is a Marginal Severe Storm Risk for your location. Continue reading for today's outlook from the National Weather Service's Storm Prediction Center.
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National Severe Storm Outlook
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NEW MEXICO INTO THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES
SUMMARY
Thunderstorms capable of producing severe wind gusts and a few tornadoes are expected this evening into the overnight from parts of New Mexico into the southern and central High Plains.
New Mexico/Southern and Central High Plains
Water vapor imagery shows a mid-level trough moving through southern California with a lead shortwave trough over far eastern Arizona and western New Mexico. Strong southwesterly flow is present in the mid-levels from New Mexico eastward into the southern and central High Plains. Ahead of the lead shortwave trough, thunderstorms have recently developed in the higher terrain of north-central New Mexico in response to strong large-scale ascent. These storms are expected to move east-northeastward into parts of northeast New Mexico and southeast Colorado this evening, and will likely have a potential for severe wind gusts.
Further to the east, a lee surface trough is located over eastern New Mexico with a moist airmass extending from near the trough eastward into the southern High Plains. Surface dewpoints have recently increased into the lower to mid 60s F over parts of eastern New Mexico, where the RAP has an axis of moderate instability with MLCAPE in the 1000 to 1800 J/g range. To the west of the instability axis, a band of strong storms is expected to develop this evening over central New Mexico. Short-term model forecasts have this line becoming organized this evening, moving east-northeastward across eastern and northeastern New Mexico into Texas Panhandle. Ahead of this line, severe wind gusts are expected. The faster moving bowing segments may produce wind gusts above 70 mph. Supercells will also be possible within the line due to strong deep-layer shear. The latest WSR-88D VWP at Amarillo has 0-3 km storm-relative helicity near 350 m2/s2, suggesting that tornadoes will be possible...see MCD 2424.
The severe threat associated with the line of storms is expected to persist into the overnight period, with the line moving into parts of northwestern Oklahoma and south-central Kansas where isolated severe gusts will be possible.