Weather Alerts For Schertz, TX

There is a Marginal Severe Storm Risk for your location. Continue reading for today's outlook from the National Weather Service's Storm Prediction Center. -------------------- National Severe Storm Outlook THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND MID-SOUTH SUMMARY Multiple rounds of severe thunderstorms will occur across parts of the southern Plains into the lower Mississippi/Tennessee Valleys and Southeast through this evening. Very large to giant hail (2-4+ inches), swaths of severe/damaging winds, and a few tornadoes are all possible. Southern Plains into the Lower Mississippi Valley/Southeast With large-scale upper troughing anchored over the Plains and central Canada, an embedded mid-level shortwave trough will eject eastward across the southern/central Plains to the lower/mid MS Valleys by this evening. Rich low-level moisture continues to spread northward from TX into southern OK this morning in tandem with a low-level jet, and this trend should continue downstream into the lower MS Valley through the day as a warm front lifts northward to a weak surface low across the Ozarks. Another surface low will remain over northwest TX, with a dryline extending southwestward to the Big Bend region. A strongly unstable airmass exists across the southern Plains to the ArkLaTex, along and near a slowly retreating/northward-returning warm front. Elevated supercells are ongoing across western north TX. This activity is being aided by lift and strong deep-layer shear associated with the ejecting mid-level shortwave trough, and low-level warm/moist advection. Current expectations are for these supercells to continue posing a threat for mainly large to very large hail through the rest of the morning as they spread east-northeastward across north TX/southern OK. But, eventual clustering and a greater damaging wind threat may materialize into the afternoon as this convection crosses the front and accesses greater instability across AR and the Ozarks. Additional surface-based convective development is forecast near the triple point in north-central TX towards the ArkLaTex this afternoon, where extreme instability (4000+ J/kg MLCAPE) and very strong deep-layer shear (50-60+ kt) will support the potential for multiple intense supercells. Very large to giant hail (2-4+ inches) may occur with the strongest supercells given the overall very favorable environment and presence of steep mid-level lapse rates. Some tornado threat may also exist with these supercells, even though low-level shear is not forecast to be overly strong. Numerous to widespread convection across the Mid-South to southern Appalachians has generally diminished in intensity this morning. In its wake, airmass recovery is anticipated today across the lower MS Valley and Mid-South. A convectively reinforced front/outflow boundary from the morning thunderstorms should attempt to lift northward some through the day, with the greater instability forecast across the lower MS Valley where steep mid-level lapse rates are in place. Convective evolution across these areas through the evening remains unclear, but multiple rounds of supercells and multicell clusters capable of producing large hail, scattered to numerous damaging winds, and perhaps a few tornadoes appear likely. Less instability is forecast to the north of the ongoing convection across the TN Valley, but some airmass recovery and severe threat still appears possible by late afternoon/early evening.