Severe Storm Risk - Abernant, AL

There is a Marginal Severe Storm Risk for your location. Continue reading for today's outlook from the National Weather Service's Storm Prediction Center. -------------------- National Severe Storm Outlook THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS PARTS TO THE SOUTHEAST AND THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND MINNESOTA SUMMARY Scattered damaging wind gusts are possible this afternoon over portions of the Southeast. Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of severe wind gusts and large hail are possible late this afternoon through tonight from the Dakotas into Minnesota. Dakotas/MN this afternoon into tonight A midlevel trough over southern SK will suppress the northern extent of the ridge over the Great Plains as an associated surface trough/front moves into ND this afternoon. Strong surface heating/mixing and weak ascent along the wind shift could support thunderstorm development after about 22z beginning in south central ND and expanding into northern SD and northeast ND through late evening. The initial storms will be relatively high based with forecast hodographs favoring splitting supercells capable of producing significant outflow gusts (80+ mph) and isolated very large hail (2-3+ inch diameter). Storms are expected to evolve into a cluster or two tonight while spreading east-southeastward toward western MN with a continued threat for occasional severe outflow gusts and large hail. Carolinas and vicinity this afternoon/evening A weak cold front will continue to drift southward across VA/KY toward NC through the afternoon, in association with the southern periphery of a midlevel trough moving over the Mid-Atlantic and southern New England. The southern extent of ~30 kt midlevel flow overlaps the baroclinic zone and northern extent of the unstable warm sector. Though midlevel lapse rates are not steep per 12z soundings, surface temperatures warming into the 90-95 F range with dewpoints in the low-mid 70s will drive MLCAPE of 2500-3500 J/kg with negligible convective inhibition and steepening low-level lapse rates. Scattered thunderstorm development is likely by early-mid afternoon along the differential heating zone near the cold front, as well as along a subtle surface trough across eastern NC. Multicell clusters are the primary expected storm mode with the potential to produce occasional wind damage with downbursts this afternoon/evening. Vertical shear will be a little stronger across southeast VA/northeast NC where some storm organization will be possible. Tropical Depression 2 in the eastern Gulf NHC has initiated advisories on Tropical Depression 2 in the eastern Gulf, centered roughly 130 n mi west of Tampa as of 15z. Though some outer eastern bands will affect the FL Gulf coast this afternoon, it appears that enhancements to flow/shear are too marginal to support any substantial threat of outer band supercells/tornadoes along the FL Gulf coast through tonight. Still, isolated strong outflow gusts will be possible with broken thunderstorm bands this afternoon/evening across central/north FL and south GA. AL area this afternoon Strong surface heating to the west and south of ongoing storm clusters in northern and eastern AL will contribute to destabilization and the potential for stronger storms within the clusters that will spread south/southwestward through the afternoon. Precipitation loading and steepening low-level lapse rates could support isolated downbursts and wind damage with the strongest storms.