Severe Storm Risk - Adger, AL

There is a Marginal Severe Storm Risk for your location. Continue reading for today's outlook from the National Weather Service's Storm Prediction Center. -------------------- National Severe Storm Outlook THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE OZARKS INTO THE MID MS VALLEY AND SOUTHERN AZ SUMMARY Thunderstorms with severe wind gusts and hail will be possible this afternoon across the mid Mississippi Valley. Isolated severe gusts and hail will also be possible from the lower to mid Missouri Valley westward into the Great Plains. A few severe gusts could also occur in southern Arizona and in the Southeast. Mid MO Valley Early-morning satellite imagery depicts a low-amplitude shortwave trough moving through western SD/NE. Showers and thunderstorms are ongoing downstream of this wave across central/eastern SD and north-central/northeast NE. Recent surface analysis place a corridor of moderate low-level moisture (i.e. upper 60s dewpoints) from eastern NE northwestward to a weak surface low over central SD. Instability will likely build within this corridor as the shortwave continues eastward, potential resulting increasing thunderstorm coverage and intensity later this morning into the afternoon across eastern NE. Vertical shear will be strong enough for organized storm structures and the potential for a few supercells. This potential will be largely dictated by how much the airmass can destabilize amid the cloud cover and limited heating. Large hail is possible within the initially more cellular activity, but a transition to a more linear mode results in damaging gusts becoming the primary hazard with eastward/southeastward extent. Ozarks into the Mid MS Valley Regional radar imagery shows a large cluster of showers and thunderstorms progressing across the region. A few stronger updrafts are possible within this cluster, but limited buoyancy downstream and a weakening low-level jet are forecast to result in gradually diminishing storm strength over the next few hours. The airmass is forecast to gradually recover in the wake of this cluster, with strong buoyancy (i.e. MLCAPE over 2000 J/kg) in place by the late afternoon. The shortwave trough mentioned in the preceding paragraph is forecast to continue southeastward, and ascent attendant to this wave coupled with weak low-level convergence along the cold front will support thunderstorm development within this destabilized airmass this evening. Strengthening mid-level flow will result in moderate to strong deep-layer vertical shear supportive of supercells. Large hail and damaging gusts are the primary hazards, but a strengthening low-level jet will result in enough low-level shear to support the potential for a few tornadoes as well. Storms will tend to cluster with eastward extent, with the threat for damaging gusts persisting within these bowing line segments. Ohio Valley A somewhat secondary area of late afternoon/early evening thunderstorm development is anticipated from central IL into central IN and central OH. Moderate buoyancy and strong westerly flow aloft support the potential for isolated supercells capable of large hail and isolated damaging gusts. Central/Southern High Plains Surface analysis places 60s dewpoints into the Colorado Foothills this morning, increasing into the upper 60s farther east/southeast into southwest KS. Strong heating/mixing of this airmass is anticipated this afternoon, promoting the development of moderate buoyancy. Thunderstorm development is expected across the high terrain before then progressing eastward into the lower elevations. Moderate northwesterly flow aloft will be support organized storms structures, and large hail is possible along the Foothill. Thereafter, a trend towards an outflow-dominant storm mode will result in strong to severe gusts across portions of the central/southern High Plains. Higher probabilities may be needed in later outlooks if guidance continues to indicate increased coverage. AZ The presence of monsoon moisture will support moderate buoyancy across the lower elevations of south-central AZ during the late afternoon. This should allow for storms that develop over the high terrain to maintain intensity as they process southwestward into the lower elevations this afternoon/evening. Steep low to mid-level lapse rates and large temperature-dewpoint spreads will support the potential for severe gusts. Southeast into northern FL A very moist airmass (i.e. dewpoints in the 70s) will be in place today from MS into FL. Strong heating is anticipated, with high temperatures in the upper 90s across much of the region. As surface temperatures warm, moderate instability will develop, with scattered thunderstorms expected amid modest low-level convergence from MS into western/southern AL and across the FL Panhandle into northern FL. The deep low-level moisture combined with steep low-level lapse rates will support an isolated wind-damage threat during the mid to late afternoon.