Severe Storm Risk - Agua Dulce, TX

There is a Marginal Severe Storm Risk for your location. Continue reading for today's outlook from the National Weather Service's Storm Prediction Center. -------------------- National Severe Storm Outlook THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN/CENTRAL TEXAS SUMMARY Scattered large hail (some 2+ inches) and numerous severe/damaging wind gusts (isolated 75+ mph) are expected this afternoon/evening across parts of west-central to central Texas. A couple of tornadoes also appear possible across parts of west-central Texas along/near a front. 20z Update The previous forecast remains largely on track with only minor adjustments required based on recent observed trends. The convectively reinforced cold front across northwest TX continues to surge south faster than anticipated by morning guidance. Nonetheless, elevated supercell development is ongoing immediately north of the boundary where MUCAPE was recently analyzed near 2000 J/kg. Consequently, severe hail probabilities (and the ENH categorical bounds) have largely been left in place with only a southward reduction in the wind and tornado probabilities based on the expected 20 UTC frontal position. Across central to southern TX, recent HRRR/RRFS time-lagged ensembles depict the potential for 75+ mph winds across the Austin/San Antonio region and southward into south TX late tonight. This signal appears reasonable given the expected evolution of the eventual MCS and downstream environment (both sampled by recent ACARS soundings and forecast by short-range guidance). The 15% wind and Intensity Level 1 contours have been expanded south to address this potential. Across northeast TX, the remnants of an early-morning MCS have transitioned into a single organized supercell that has begun weakening over the past 20-30 minutes. However, attempts at new convective development are noted along the outflow boundary to the south of the decaying supercell. With temperatures in the mid 80s along/south of the boundary, lingering inhibition should be minimized and may allow for additional strong/severe thunderstorms through early evening with an attendant threat for severe hail/wind. Elsewhere, the forecast remains on track. See the previous discussion below and MCDs 693, 694, and 695 for additional short-term details.