Severe Storm Risk - Alto Pass, IL

There is a Marginal Severe Storm Risk for your location. Continue reading for today's outlook from the National Weather Service's Storm Prediction Center. -------------------- National Severe Storm Outlook THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO FAR SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND EXTREME NORTHWEST IOWA THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES...WESTERN KANSAS...AND PARTS OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY SUMMARY Scattered severe storms are still possible from the northern Plains into the Midwest and Great Lakes regions today into tonight, as well as across the southern Appalachians and Tennessee Valley this afternoon and early evening. 20Z Update Much of the previous forecast remains generally on track, especially for portions of the central High Plains, the TN Valley, and northern New England. However, appreciable uncertainty still exists regarding the potential for focused corridors of severe across much of the northern Plains into the Great Lakes. Relatively robust supercell evolution has occurred along mesoscale surface baroclinic boundaries, amid generally weak upper-level support, to support instances of 2-3 inch diameter hail over central/eastern SD, as well as instances of brief and modest rotation with storms over northeastern IA. Please see MCDs 1440-1441 for short-term details of convective evolution. However, these storms are moving roughly normal to boundary orientation, putting the duration of higher-end severe into question. At least for portions of the Upper Midwest though, there is a modest signal of an MCS traversing a baroclinic boundary along the WI/IL border for multiple hours. A locally greater concentration of damaging gusts could accompany this activity through the afternoon, though confidence in this scenario is not overly high either. Many of the ongoing storms (especially over SD) are occurring over portions of the open warm sector relatively early in the diurnal heating cycle, casting uncertainty regarding the impacts the ongoing storms will have on later afternoon initiation and evolution along other mesoscale boundaries. As such, prudence was exercised in favor of making only minor changes to the outlook to reflect the latest guidance consensus.