Severe Storm Risk - Andover, MO

There is a Marginal Severe Storm Risk for your location. Continue reading for today's outlook from the National Weather Service's Storm Prediction Center. -------------------- National Severe Storm Outlook THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN IOWA...NORTHERN ILLINOIS...AND FAR SOUTHERN WISCONSIN SUMMARY Severe thunderstorms capable of producing a few tornadoes appear probable across parts of eastern Iowa, northern Illinois, and southern Wisconsin this afternoon. Additionally, damaging thunderstorm winds will be possible from eastern Iowa northeast into Michigan. Overview A negatively tilted trough will quickly lift northward through the Plains and across the Great Lakes today and tonight. As this occurs, a modest surface low will race northeast from north-central Kansas this morning into Ontario by Friday morning. Attendant to this surface low, a west-east oriented warm front will lift northward across the Great Lakes during the day and a north-south cold front will push east across the region during the late afternoon and overnight. Eastern Iowa east-north into Michigan A strong low-level jet at the start of the forecast period will support widespread showers and thunderstorms across the area. The low-level jet will strengthen through the morning as the midlevel trough approaches and the H850 low intensifies. This will maintain showers and thunderstorms through at least midday across Iowa and Illinois before the H850 low moves far enough north and east for the core of the low-level jet to focus farther east, taking the precipitation with it. In the wake of the morning/early afternoon convection, a narrow corridor of destabilization should occur across central/eastern Iowa and northwest Illinois to the south of the warm front and east of the cold front. Scattered supercells are expected to develop along the cold front during the afternoon where MUCAPE in excess of 1000 J/kg and deep-layer shear on the order of 45 knots exists. Strong low-level kinematic fields will support a tornado and wind threat with these initial storms, and, despite modest lapse-rates, the presence of supercells within a modestly unstable environment will support some hail potential. By late afternoon/early evening these supercells should move into a less stable environment characterized by decreasing CAPE but increasing low-level shear. Current expectation is that the initial discrete storms will eventually grow upscale into one or more linear segments, along the advancing cold front. Despite the decreasing instability, the strength of the low-level wind field will support a continued wind threat eastward into Lower Michigan during the evening and overnight hours. Northeast Arkansas, Southeast Missouri, western Tennessee, and western Kentucky Isolated thunderstorms will be possible during the afternoon along and ahead of the surface cold front, where modest warm-air advection is forecast to persist through the day. Despite weakening kinematic fields, deep-layer shear on the order of 30 knots and MUCAPE between 1000-2000 J/kg will support at least some severe potential -- including a tornado or two -- during the late afternoon and early evening.