Severe Storm Risk - Argyle, MI

• Severe Storm Risk

  Fri 09:00 AM - Sat 08:00 AM

  There is a Marginal Severe Storm Risk for your location. Continue reading for today's outlook from the National Weather Service's Storm Prediction Center. -------------------- National Severe Storm Outlook THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS SUMMARY Severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening across the Midwest to southern portions of the Great Lakes region, accompanied by a risk for damaging wind gusts, hail, as well as some tornado potential. Severe thunderstorms are also expected across the central/southern High Plains and Upper Midwest. Midwest/Lower Missouri Valley to Great Lakes A decayed overnight MCS and residual convection/cloud cover will reinforce the baroclinic zone regionally. Near/south of the boundary, surface dew points near and above 70F, beneath modestly steep mid-level lapse rates, are forecast to contribute to CAPE on the order of 2000-3000 J/kg. This will be beneath a lingering belt of convectively augmented mid-level flow (on the order of 30-50 kt in the 700-500 mb layer). Coupled with modest, clockwise-curved low-level hodographs in advance of a weak surface wave, the environment should become conducive to supercell structures into mid/late afternoon. These supercells may pose a risk for hail and potentially a couple of tornadoes across parts of northern Missouri and southern/eastern Iowa into northern Illinois, and possibly far southern Wisconsin. Damaging wind gusts should become the more predominant potential hazard as convection tends to grow upscale into east/southeastward-moving clusters this evening. Central High Plains The immediate post-frontal regime should be favorable for severe storm development this afternoon into evening across southeast Wyoming and northeast Colorado into southwest Nebraska/northwest Kansas. Some initial supercells capable of large hail can be expected, and one or more east/eastward-moving clusters may evolve by evening with severe-caliber winds also a possibility. Upper Midwest At least isolated strong to severe thunderstorms can be expected near the east/southeastward-moving front this afternoon, including the eastern Dakotas into much of Minnesota. This will be influenced by the amplifying upper-level trough approaching the Dakotas/northern Minnesota. The strongest winds aloft/vertical shear will tend to lag the front, but ample near/pre-frontal buoyancy will support storms capable of hail/wind. Southern Rockies into the Great Plains Thermodynamic profiles characterized by modest low-level moisture, but with generally steep lapse rates, including fairly deep boundary-layer mixing, may become conducive to scattered thunderstorm clusters posing a risk for severe wind and hail late this afternoon and evening. A degree of storm organization may be aided by modest shear beneath northwesterly mid-level flow, with thunderstorm activity mostly initiating off the higher terrain of the Front Range through Sangre de Cristo Mountains. Additionally, low-level convergence within surface troughing across southern Kansas through the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandle vicinity may also become sufficient for thunderstorm initiation during the peak late afternoon heating, and one or more semi-organized clusters capable of wind damage could evolve. This region will be reevaluated in subsequent outlooks for potential inclusion of a wind-related Slight Risk.