Severe Storm Risk - Asbury Park, NJ

There is a Marginal Severe Storm Risk for your location. Continue reading for today's outlook from the National Weather Service's Storm Prediction Center. -------------------- National Severe Storm Outlook THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...ACROSS THE TENNESSEE/OHIO VALLEY INTO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC SUMMARY Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are expected today from the ArkLaTex and Lower Mississippi Valley northeastward through the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic. Ohio Valley/Middle Atlantic Northern-stream trough is digging east-southeast across the northern Rockies/High Plains early this morning and should advance into the upper MS Valley by 18z as a 500mb speed max translates through the base of the trough, then increases in intensity as it moves across lower MI during the afternoon. Large-scale height falls will overspread the Great Lakes/OH-TN Valley region as southwesterly flow strengthens across the downstream warm sector. Latest model guidance suggests the sharp cold front associated with this feature will extend across lower MI-central IL-northern MO at the start of the period. This boundary will serve as a primary focus for thunderstorm development through the period. By mid day, the front will have surged into northwest OH-central IN and modest boundary layer heating is expected across the warm sector downstream. Current thinking is modest destabilization will be noted across much of the OH/TN Valley such that MLCAPE values should be on the order of 1500 J/kg within a strongly sheared environment. Forecast soundings support this and supercells are expected to develop, in addition to possible line segments and clusters. Large hail is possible with supercells, along with damaging winds and a risk for a few tornadoes. This activity will spread east toward the Middle Atlantic by late afternoon. Gulf States Positive-tilt short-wave trough is shifting east across west TX/northeast Mexico. However, this feature is expected to become more negative tilt by late afternoon as it ejects toward the lower Sabine River Valley. Seasonally cool 500mb temperatures are noted with this feature and a focused 70kt midlevel jet is forecast to translate along the Gulf coast during the latter half of the period. Left-exit region of this jet will encourage ascent/deep convection. Latest guidance suggests a surface low may evolve in response, tracking from the upper TX coast, across southern LA into southern MS by 12/06z. Some LLJ response is also expected which should aid organized thunderstorms across the southern Gulf states. Strong shear favors severe winds along with a risk for tornadoes. Some consideration was given to increasing severe probabilities ahead of this feature. This may be done in later outlooks if conditions continue to evolve toward an organized squall line.