Severe Storm Risk - Ashland, LA

There is a Marginal Severe Storm Risk for your location. Continue reading for today's outlook from the National Weather Service's Storm Prediction Center. -------------------- National Severe Storm Outlook THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT IN CENTRAL TEXAS SUMMARY Scattered large hail (some 2+ inches) and numerous severe/damaging wind gusts (isolated 75+ mph) are expected this evening across parts of central Texas. Central Texas to the Texas Coast and deep South Texas As of 00:15z, volumetric radar data indicated an HP supercell gradually evolving into a larger-scale bowing complex over McCulloch, San Saba, and Mason counties with a separate supercell complex over Coryell county, which recently produced hail up to four inches in diameter. Surface observations and objective analysis indicate the presence of a warm and moist inflow air mass with estimated MLCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg. While deep-layer shear isn't particularly strong, the observed supercell structures indicate sufficient shear exists to support organized storm modes given the degree of instability. Current thinking is that the separate thunderstorm regimes mentioned above will eventually merge along a common cold pool, with a broader-scale MCS accelerating south-southeast through the remainder of central TX this evening. Corridors of damaging winds in excess of 75 mph appear likely within the core of the bowing complex. The very large hail (> 2") threat is expected to persist for the next hour or two with the dominant supercell structures. Hail sizes should diminish with time as convection transitions to more of an outflow dominant system. The wind damage threat is expected to become more isolated late tonight as the convective system approaches the TX Coast and deep South Texas owing to gradual cooling and stabilization of the boundary layer.