Severe Storm Risk - Belding, MI

There is a Marginal Severe Storm Risk for your location. Continue reading for today's outlook from the National Weather Service's Storm Prediction Center. -------------------- National Severe Storm Outlook THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN MISSOURI INTO FAR SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND WESTERN KENTUCKY SUMMARY Severe storms should continue through tonight with a wind and hail threat. A few tornadoes may still occur, and a couple of strong tornadoes remain possible. Synopsis A negatively tilted 500 mb mid-level trough continues to traverse the Upper Midwest in tandem with a surface low, supporting a surface cold front to sweep across the Mid-MS Valley. A persistent elongated convective system has materialized along the cold front, accompanied by several embedded and preceding supercells. These storms have a collective history of severe wind and hail, with some stones reaching the 2-3 inch diameter range. Upper 60s to low 70s F surface dewpoints, beneath 8+ C/km mid-level lapse rates, resides ahead of the cold front/storms, yielding over 3000 J/kg MLCAPE in spots. Meanwhile, strong mid-level flow associated with a speed max is overspreading an intensifying (45+ kt) southwesterly low-level jet, resulting in 50+ kts of effective bulk shear and large/curved low-level hodographs with 300-500 m2/s2 effective SRH (per 00Z mesoanalysis and regional VADs). Supercells have failed to organize and produce tornadoes up to this point. However, storms along/ahead of the cold front will continue to advance eastward toward the low-level jet/shear axis. Therefore, an uptick in tornado activity may still occur early tonight, especially with any discrete, sustained supercells that can develop. Discrete storms may also be accompanied by severe hail, with severe wind gusts likely with continued linear storm modes.