Severe Storm Risk - Belle Rive, IL

There is a Marginal Severe Storm Risk for your location. Continue reading for today's outlook from the National Weather Service's Storm Prediction Center. -------------------- National Severe Storm Outlook THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS SUMMARY Thunderstorms with large hail and severe wind gusts will be possible this evening across parts of the central High Plains. A few severe wind gusts may also occur from the Ozarks northeastward into the Ohio Valley. Central High Plains The latest water vapor imagery shows a shortwave mid-level trough over eastern Colorado. An axis of moderate instability, with MLCAPE in the 1500 to 2000 J/kg range, is analyzed by the RAP just ahead of this feature from near the Colorado-Kansas state line southeastward into the Oklahoma Panhandle. An isolated supercell is currently ongoing near the instability axis near Lamar, Colorado. RAP forecast soundings ahead of this cell across far southwest Kansas early this evening have MLCAPE in the 1500 to 2000 J/kg range, 0-6 km shear near 40 knots and 700-500 mb lapse rates around 7 C/km. This environment will continue to support supercells capable of large hail and wind damage. The threat could persist into the mid to late evening with parts of southwest Kansas and the Oklahoma Panhandle being affected. Later this evening, short-term model forecasts also suggest that redevelopment may occur to the east of the Denver Metro, with a new cluster potentially tracking southeastward near the instability axis. This activity could also pose a large hail and wind damage threat. Ozarks into the Ohio Valley Several minor perturbations, embedded in westerly flow aloft, appear to moving through a corridor from the Ozarks eastward into the Ohio Valley. The most pronounced feature appears to be located in southeastern Indiana, ahead of which a small cluster of severe storms is ongoing. Along the projected track of these storms, the RAP has MLCAPE in the 1200 to 1500 J/kg range with 0-6 km around 35 knots. This should continue to support an isolated wind-damage threat for a couple more hours early this evening...see MCD 2319. Further southwest into the parts of the Ozarks and mid Mississippi Valley, moderate instability is analyzed by the RAP from far northeast Oklahoma northeastward into south-central Illinois. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are ongoing near the instability axis. These storms may be capable of producing isolated severe wind gusts for another hour or two this evening...see MCD 2318.