Severe Storm Risk - Belleville, MO

There is a Slight Severe Storm Risk for your location. Continue reading for today's outlook from the National Weather Service's Storm Prediction Center. -------------------- National Severe Storm Outlook THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INTO EARLY TONIGHT FROM THE HIGH PLAINS INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHERN MISSOURI SUMMARY Scattered severe thunderstorms with severe outflow gusts and large hail will persist into early tonight across the High Plains and from northern Oklahoma into southern Missouri. Northern OK to southern MO Multiple strong-severe storms formed late this afternoon along a stalled front from the northeast TX Panhandle eastward into northern OK into southern MO. Seasonably high moisture content in the boundary layer (dewpoints in the low-mid 70s) and lingering warm temperatures are contributing to MLCAPE near 3000 J/kg with only weak convective inhibition, while vertical shear is sufficient for supercells with large hail (1 to 2 inches in diameter). Storms will likely persist into tonight as a result of cell interactions and an increase in warm advection with a strengthening low-level jet, immediately downstream from a subtle midlevel trough now approaching northwest OK. The stronger cells/clusters will be capable of isolated large hail and occasional severe outflow gusts of 60-70 mph as storms spread slowly southeastward across northern/central/northeast OK. A similar environment extends into southern MO along and south of the stalled front, with a few ongoing cells/clusters. There has been some localized tornado threat across south central MO where a discrete storm or two are interacting with a zone of slightly enhanced low-level shear in a moist environment, though the tornado threat will remain localized/marginal. High Plains Widely scattered storm clusters formed this afternoon and continue to develop this evening with interacting outflows from MT across eastern WY/NE Panhandle into eastern CO and the western OK Panhandle on the west edge of the moisture in a largely upslope flow regime. This corridor is downstream from a pronounced midlevel trough over the Great Basin/Pacific Northwest, which will encourage a nocturnal low-level jet to support some persistence of storms into early tonight, despite weakening buoyancy and increasing inhibition with eastward extent. Occasional severe outflow gusts and large hail will be the main threats. Potential for storms to maintain a wind/hail threat a little deeper into the overnight hours will be across southwest KS and vicinity. The storm clusters spreading eastward from CO will encounter somewhat richer low-level moisture (mid-upper 60s dewpoints) on the immediate cool side of a stalled front, coincident with a nocturnal increase in the low-level jet and associated warm advection. KY area A remnant MCV is moving eastward over western KY with the primary storm cluster from far southern IN into central KY on the leading edge of the ascent. These storms have exhibited a primarily linear mode with a trailing cold pool into western KY. Earlier discrete storms have since weakened while moving atop the rain-cooled air, though a few storms may persist into early tonight in the warm advection regime on the southwest flank of the MCV. The primary severe threat appears to be isolated wind damage with the leading line segments across central/northern KY for the next 1-2 hours before boundary-layer stabilization weakens the storms.