Severe Storm Risk - Bethune, CO

There is a Slight Severe Storm Risk for your location. Continue reading for today's outlook from the National Weather Service's Storm Prediction Center. -------------------- National Severe Storm Outlook THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AS WELL AS THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY SUMMARY Thunderstorms with severe wind gusts and isolated large hail will be possible from late afternoon into the evening across the central High Plains. Severe wind gusts will also be possible this afternoon into the early evening across parts of the Ohio Valley. Central High Plains Relatively moist southwesterly flow aloft coupled with strong daytime heating and lift both from orographic effects and a weak vorticity maximum will support another day of thunderstorms across the central Rockies. These thunderstorms should gradually move off the higher terrain into the central High Plains, where a moderately buoyant airmass will be in place. Around 30 to 35 kt of effective bulk shear is expected over the region as well, which is strong enough to support a mixed mode with supercells and multicell line segments. Isolated large hail is possible with any supercells, while severe wind gusts will be possible with both supercells and line segments. The severe threat should persist into the early to mid evening as this complex of storms moves eastward through the central High Plains. Central OH Valley An expansive, slow-moving MCS, characterized by widespread showers and sub-severe thunderstorms, is centered over central IL this morning. This MCS has been supported overnight by a southwesterly low-level jet that extends from the southern High Plains into the Mid MS Valley. This low-level jet is forecast to wane throughout the morning, with a subsequent decrease in coverage and intensity of the showers and thunderstorms within the MCS. Even so, the vorticity maximum associated with this system will gradually drift eastward, likely supporting renewed thunderstorm development across the middle/upper OH Valley as it interacts with a diurnally destabilizing airmass. Lapse rates will be poor, but dewpoints in the 70s will still support moderate buoyancy, particularly in areas where cloud cover does not overly inhibit diurnal heating. This currently appears most likely from far southeast IN into southern OH and northern KY. Strong updrafts and high precipitable water will support the potential for wet microbursts capable of producing damaging gusts. Central Appalachians into the Carolinas and GA A very moist airmass, characterized by dewpoints in the low to mid 70s, is in place from the GA and Carolinas into the central Appalachians. Strong heating is forecast to destabilize this airmass by the early afternoon, resulting in a large reservoir of moderate buoyancy. Thunderstorm development is anticipated within this destabilized airmass across the higher terrain of the central Appalachians as well as any area of low-level convergence across the remainder of the region. Vertical shear will be weak, and limited storm organization is anticipated. Even so, the moderate buoyancy could still support updrafts/downdrafts strong enough to produce occasional damaging gusts. Central Plains/Mid MO Valley into the Mid MS Valley Elevated thunderstorms are expected again this evening through tonight, initiated by both an approaching cold front and warm-air advection. Ample low-level moisture and moderate buoyancy will be in place, but vertical shear will be marginal. Isolated strong to severe storms are expected, but a predominantly elevated and clustered storm mode should limit the overall severe potential.