Severe Storm Risk - Black Forest, CO

There is a Slight Severe Storm Risk for your location. Continue reading for today's outlook from the National Weather Service's Storm Prediction Center. -------------------- National Severe Storm Outlook THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND THE SOUTHEAST SUMMARY Thunderstorms with large hail and severe wind gusts are still expected this afternoon and evening across parts of the central Plains. Scattered to numerous strong to severe wind gusts are also likely from the Ozarks southeastward into parts of the Southeast. 20Z Update The previous forecast (see below) remains generally on track. A relatively more organized cold-pool-driven MCS is continuing to track south-southeastward across eastern MS into central AL, with a history of damaging gusts. This MCS should continue to traverse a diffuse buoyancy axis and produce additional damaging gusts through the afternoon, though weakening should eventually occur as the MCS propagates away from the relatively stronger deep-layer shear. Over the next few hours, strong to severe thunderstorms currently over southern MO should congeal into another cold-pool-driven MCS and drift southward into strong buoyancy, characterized by over 4000 J/kg MLCAPE. Deep-layer shear is rather poor across the mid-MS Valley. However, the strong to locally extreme buoyancy should compensate to support multiple damaging gusts. The next cold-pool driven MCS in the series should develop from ongoing severe hail producing supercells across the central High Plains, which are poised to grow upscale later this evening. Once an MCS develops, a swath of severe gusts is likely, especially across western into central KS.