Severe Storm Risk - Black Forest, CO

There is a Slight Severe Storm Risk for your location. Continue reading for today's outlook from the National Weather Service's Storm Prediction Center. -------------------- National Severe Storm Outlook THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS/CENTRAL PLAINS...AND FROM THE MID-SOUTH INTO THE TN VALLEY SUMMARY Thunderstorms with large hail and severe wind gusts are expected this afternoon and evening across parts of the central Plains. Scattered to numerous strong to severe wind gusts will also be possible from the Ozarks southeastward into parts of the Southeast. Mid-South into the Southeast An MCS is currently progressing generally southeastward, with preceding outflow arcing from southeast MO through far northwest TN. Some brief intensification was noted along this outflow, although updraft strength continues to be somewhat transient. General expectation is for this pattern of brief intensification to continue for the next hour or two, before building instability along the western edge of the outflow results in updraft/downdraft cycles strong enough to produce strong to severe gusts. However, given limited deep-layer shear, overall updraft organization will likely remain transient. Additional new development is anticipated farther west during the afternoon from south-central MO into northern AR (and perhaps western TN and northern MS). Dewpoints in the 70s amid afternoon high temperatures in the upper 80s/low 90s will support very strong buoyancy, with MLCAPE values around 4000 J/kg. This buoyancy will support robust updrafts, but weak shear will limit storm organization, contributing to an outflow-dominant, multicellular mode. Even with limited organization, the updraft/downdraft cycles should be strong enough for widespread strong/severe storms capable of damaging wind gusts and some isolated hail. The storms, whether with the ongoing cluster or newer development farther west, may spread as far south as central MS/AL during the evening before weakening. High Plains Morning surface analysis placed a low over southeast CO, with moist easterly/southeasterly flow throughout the eastern and northern periphery of this low. Associated low-level moisture advection is anticipated throughout the day, but strong boundary-layer mixing is expected to result in afternoon dewpoints in the upper 40s/low 50s. Even so, this modest low-level moisture beneath steep mid-level lapse rates will foster moderate buoyancy, with MLCAPE likely around 1000-1500 J/kg this afternoon. Scattered thunderstorm development is anticipated from southeast WY into the foothills of central CO by mid-afternoon. Sufficient deep-layer shear should support supercells capable of large to isolated very large hail early in the convective cycle, but a trend towards a more outflow-dominant structure leads to bowing segments capable of strong to severe gusts. Isolated gusts over 65 kt are possible. Some upscale growth into an organized MCS is possible with one or more of these bowing segments this evening as the low-level jet increases and the clusters encounter greater low-level moisture. Isolated damaging gusts are also possible with any development along the dryline in TX.