Severe Storm Risk - Bodfish, ME

There is a Enhanced Severe Storm Risk for your location. Continue reading for today's outlook from the National Weather Service's Storm Prediction Center. -------------------- National Severe Storm Outlook THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF MONTANA SUMMARY Severe thunderstorms capable of producing damaging winds (isolated 75+ mph), large to very large hail, and tornadoes (some strong) are expected today across parts of northern New York and New England. Thunderstorms with scattered severe winds and isolated hail will also be possible across portions of Montana. Northeast An active and potentially impactful severe weather event remains apparent today across parts of the Northeast/northern New England. Ongoing convection this morning now moving over the St. Lawrence River in Quebec may tend to weaken as it approaches the international border in the next couple of hours, as MUCAPE remains quite weak at the moment with eastward extent into ME (reference the 12Z observed sounding from CAR). But if it persists, then an isolated hail threat would be possible. In the wake of this activity, an EML and strong mid/upper-level jet will overspread much of the Northeast. Steepening lapse rates aloft combined with filtered daytime heating and gradually increasing low-level moisture advecting northeastward across the St. Lawrence River Valley will all aid in the development of moderate to locally strong instability. MLCAPE may peak in the 2000-3000 J/kg range by mid to late afternoon across northern NY/VT/NH into western ME, generally along/south of outflow from the morning convection. Strong mid-level flow (around 50-60 kt) associated with a west-northwesterly mid-level jet will foster similar values of effective bulk shear and easily support organized updrafts, including the potential for intense supercells. Current expectations are for organized severe thunderstorms, including a mix of clusters and supercells, to move southeastward across southern Quebec by 19-22Z. The rather favorable thermodynamic and kinematic environment across northern New England suggests a significant threat for severe/damaging winds (some 75+ mph possible) and large to very large hail (isolated 2+ inches) will exist with this activity. While low-level flow will tend to remain from the west-southwest, it is forecast to strengthen through the day, and also veer strongly to north-northwesterly with height through mid/upper levels. The resulting effective SRH appears more than sufficient for updraft rotation, and multiple tornadoes may occur. A narrow corridor of greater tornado potential (including strong tornadoes) may exist this afternoon and evening across parts of western into central ME if supercells can be maintained. Otherwise, one or more intense clusters will likely spread east-southeastward towards the coast through the evening while continuing to pose a threat for scattered to numerous damaging winds and line-embedded tornadoes. Montana A subtle mid-level shortwave trough on the western periphery of upper ridging over the north-central CONUS will translate northeastward through the period across the northern Rockies and adjacent High Plains. Low-level moisture should continue to gradually spread westward from eastern into central MT through the day to the north of a weak surface low. The airmass from southwest to central MT will destabilize by mid afternoon as daytime heating occurs, and the boundary layer is forecast to become rather well-mixed. Large-scale ascent associated with the mid-level shortwave trough and attendant 40-50 kt mid-level jet will support convective development across the higher terrain of southwest MT by late afternoon. This initial activity may pose both an isolated hail and severe wind threat given weak instability and moderate to strong deep-layer shear. With time, this activity should tend to cluster as it spreads into central/eastern MT through the evening and encounters greater low-level moisture and related instability. With steepened low to mid-level lapse rates expected, scattered severe/damaging winds and isolated hail appear possible with this cluster. A Slight Risk has been included for parts of central of MT where greater confidence exists in severe gusts occurring. Florida Peninsula Even though shear will remain weak, occasional gusty winds may occur with the stronger thunderstorms that develop this afternoon across parts of the FL Peninsula as low-level lapse rates gradually steepen with daytime heating.